CV wholesales may see upto 3% growth in FY2025 says ICRA

CV wholesales may see upto 3% growth in FY2025 says ICRA

ICRA, one of the leading ratings agency, expects the domestic commercial vehicle industry’s wholesale volumes to witness a nominal YoY growth of 0-3 percent in FY2025, against the earlier estimated decline of 4-7 percent. This follows a better-than-expected volume growth in 4M FY2025 and expectations of a marginal uptick in demand in the second half of the fiscal. 

FY2025 will be the second consecutive year of muted growth after a 1 percent and 3 percent YoY growth in wholesale and retail sales, respectively, in FY2024.

Kinjal Shah, Senior Vice-President & Co-Group Head – Corporate Ratings, ICRA: “A range of factors such as the slowdown in infrastructure activities during the General Elections, as well as extreme heatwaves across the country, had some bearing on demand in Q1 FY2025. However, volumes in this period exceeded ICRA’s expectations. Looking ahead, ICRA expects a recovery in volumes in H2 FY2025 aided by a back-ended government capex, some pick-up in private capex across manufacturing sectors, and an improvement in rural demand, following visibility around the Kharif crop output and farm cash flows. The replacement demand would also remain healthy (primarily due to the ageing fleet) and is expected to support the industry volumes in the medium term.”

“The long-term growth drivers for the domestic CV industry remain intact, like the sustained push in infrastructure development (evidenced by retaining the higher infrastructure capital outlay in the July 2024 budgetary allocation), a steady increase in mining activities, and the improvement in roads/highway connectivity.”

ICRA states that medium and heavy commercial vehicles (M&HCV) (trucks) volumes in FY2025 are expected to report a nominal growth of 0-3 percent YoY, given the high base effect and the impact of the General Elections on infrastructure activities in the first few months of the fiscal. The segment had ended FY2024 with flattish volumes. Within this sub-segment, while the tipper volumes reported 4 percent YoY contraction in Q1 FY2025, the haulage sub-segment showed a modest 3 percent YoY growth for the quarter. Tractor-trailers reported a modest 7 percent YoY volume growth in Q1 FY2025.

Domestic light commercial vehicles (LCV) (trucks) wholesale volumes are expected to show a tepid YoY growth of -1 percent to 2 percent in FY2025 due to factors such as a high base effect, sustained slowdown in e-commerce and cannibalisation from electric three-wheelers. The segment had witnessed a mild decline of 3 percent on a YoY basis in FY2024, owing to the above factors, in addition to a deficit rainfall impacting the rural economy. Increased total cost of ownership of LCVs has also led to a rising preference for pre-owned vehicles by the small fleet operators, which may impact the demand, going forward.

The scrappage of older government vehicles is expected to drive replacement demand for the bus segment from state road transport undertakings (SRTUs) in FY2025, supporting a YoY growth of 8-11 percent. The sub-segment volumes gained considerable traction in FY2024 and exceeded the pre-covid levels.

In terms of powertrain mix, conventional fuels (primarily diesel) continue to dominate the domestic CV industry with a penetration of over 90 percent, while alternative fuels (CNG, LNG and electric) had driven around 9 percent sales in FY2024. Relatively higher penetration of electric vehicles (EVs) has been witnessed in buses (as e-buses were covered under FAME-II subsidies but not the other sub-segments), followed by LCV goods, with a penetration of 7 percent and 1 percent, respectively, in FY2024.

ICRA expects the operating profit margin (OPM) of the domestic CV original equipment manufacturers to remain range bound in FY2025 to 9.5 percent to 10.5 percent on the back of muted volumes and higher competitive pricing pressures, although factors such as cost improvement, favourable raw material costs and better product discipline are expected to lend some support to the profitability. 

The operating margins in FY2024 had improved by almost 300 bps to 10.7 percent supported by operating leverage benefits and better product mix. In addition, lower discounting and benign commodity prices aided in the margin expansion in FY2024. The capex and investments for the industry are likely to increase to around INR 56-58 billion in FY2025, against about INR 34 billion in FY2024. These will be mainly towards product development, especially in the areas of alternate powertrains, technology upgradation and maintenance-related activities.

“ICRA foresees the credit metrics of the industry to remain stable in FY2025 even as margins may contract marginally and capex outlay is anticipated to increase. The continued strong operating performance is expected to support the coverage metrics of the industry, with Total Debt / OPBITDA projected at 1.2-1.4 times as on March 31, 2025, against 1.5 times in as on 31 March, 2024 and interest coverage at 6.8-7.2x in FY2025, against 7.2 times in FY2024,” concluded Shah.

 

SegmentYoY Volume Growth (%)Earlier Growth Estimates (%)
FY2023FY2024Q1 FY2025FY2025PFY2025P
M&HCV (trucks)40%0%3%0% to 3%-4% to -7%
LCV (trucks)23%-3%-1%-1% to 2%-5% to -8%
Buses160%27%28%8% to 11%2% to 5%
Source: SIAM, ICRA Research     

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Scania India Announces Silvio Munhoz As Its New MD

Scania India Announces Silvio Munhoz As Its New MD

Scania India has appointed Silvio Munhoz as the new Managing Director, effective 1 September 2024. He succeeds Johan P. Schlyter. 

Bringing decades of extensive experience in the automotive industry to his new role, Munhoz has held key positions such as Managing Director of Codema, and interim President and CEO of Scania Brazil. 

He has, throughout his career, demonstrated a strong strategic vision, a customer-centric approach, and a deep commitment to sustainable innovation, driving success across multiple markets. His appointment marks a new chapter in Scania India's growth as the company continues to focus on delivering state-of-the-art transport solutions and reinforcing its sustainability initiatives in the region. 

Under the leadership of Munhoz, Scania India continues to underline its commitment to provide complete solutions to the transport and energy industries. 

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Softlink Global Introduces Business Intelligence Tool

Softlink Global Introduces Business Intelligence Tool

Softlink Global has introduced LogiBRAIN, a business intelligence tool poised to reshape the logistics landscape. It is supplementary to Logi-Sys, an integrated supply chain platform by the same company. 

Tailored for the freight forwarding community by harnessing real-time data, the tool offers users precise and up-to-the-minute insights into shipments, costs and overall performance, which enables streamlined decision-making for crucial aspects such as routing, forecasting and inventory management. 

The key features of LogiBRAIN include a dashboard that showcases essential metrics like monthly and branch performance, and performance by Line of Business (LOB). The tool also boasts of advanced filters that facilitate in-depth data analysis, enabling users to identify trends and anomalies and customisable reporting features cater to individual user requirements. 

Amit Maheshwari, Founder, Softlink Global, said, "LogiBRAIN is more than just a tool – it's an innovation crafted to give businesses the competitive edge they seek. It empowers them with the ability to drive efficiency, reduce costs, and truly thrive in the dynamic landscape of logistics." "Extracting nuanced insights from massive data sets, LogiBRAIN is poised to be a game-changer for businesses of all sizes within the freight forwarding ecosystem. We're confident in its ability to serve as a valuable asset to our clientele," he added. 

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Truck Rentals Surge As Festive Season Approaches

Truck Rentals Surge As Festive Season Approaches

Truck rentals continued their upward trend in August 2024, marking the second consecutive month of growth, as per the recent Shriram Mobility Bulletin. 

The festive season’s approach, coupled with increased post-election activities, has significantly driven demand across various transportation routes. Fleet utilisation in the India-Bangladesh border region saw a significant improvement, rising to nearly 60 percent from the previous 40 percent. 

The resumption of trade activities between India and Bangladesh has particularly increased truck rentals in the Kolkata-Guwahati-Kolkata route, registering the highest surge at 3.0 percent. The Delhi-Kolkata-Delhi and Delhi-Hyderabad-Delhi routes also witnessed increases of 2.7 percent and 2.3 percent, respectively. 

Apple harvest and poll bound activity pushed up freight rates in the Srinagar region. Freight rates rose by nearly 10 percent in August 2024 in this area. The Wayanad region experienced a rise in freight rates due to a reduced number of trucks, many of which are engaged in rehabilitation work.

Referring to the above development, YS Chakravarti, MD and CEO, Shriram Finance Ltd, said, "As the festive season approaches, companies across India are intensifying their efforts to boost production and supply, causing an uptick in truck rentals on key routes. The Srinagar area is particularly active due to the apple picking season and pre-election activities, which are driving up freight rates. Additionally, the reopening of trade at the India-Bangladesh border is leading to higher fleet usage in that region. However, the recent floods in Gujarat have led to logistical challenges. As we observe the situation, there is a cautious anticipation to see how quickly Andhra Pradesh and Telangana will recover from the devastating floods.”

 

Image for representative purpose only.

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Shenu Agarwal Appointed As MD And CEO Of Ashok Leyland

Shenu Agarwal Appointed As MD And CEO Of Ashok Leyland

Ashok Leyland announced today that Shenu Agarwal has been appointed as Managing Director and CEO of the company, with immediate effect. Assuming charge, Agarwal will drive the technology development, growth and future strategy for the company towards achieving the company’s vision to be among the top 10 commercial vehicle players globally. Ashok Leyland claims that Agarwal joins the company from Escorts Kubota Ltd, where he was President. He was Chief Executive for the agribusiness for more than seven years. According to Ashok Leyland, he is associated closely with the transformation of escorts into a leadership position by ushering in contemporary global standards of design, quality and manufacturing.

Dheeraj Hinduja, Executive Chairman, Ashok Leyland, said, “Shenu has a proven track record as a leader from a business conglomerate and is an all-rounder, having worked in different capacities in many disciplines. Our focus on reliability, ambition to achieve global scale and our constant pursuit of enhancing stakeholder value at Ashok Leyland all will get further strengthened with Shenu at the helm. I am optimistic that the company will carve new niches in the mobility sector soon under his stewardship and I wish him the very best for the future."

Sharing his thoughts on this new position, Agarwal said, “I am honoured and feel privileged to be part of Ashok Leyland, an institution with a rich 75-year legacy of pioneering technology leadership. I look forward to working closely with all the stakeholders and employees to help achieve in an accelerated manner Ashok Leyland’s vision to be among the top 10 CV manufacturers globally.”

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