Outlining the journey of M&HCVs for the last 12 years and how they have reflected IIP growth in India, Jayesh Shelar, Head – Product Management Group, Mahindra Truck & Bus Division, Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd, mentioned, “The last decade was one of discovery and presented key challenges like the 3 emission cycles. The BS IV to BS VI emission norm transition was the fastest in the world.” In his presentation as part of the webinar organized by S&P Global Mobility- formerly IHS Markit Automotive- (as part of their 2022 Automotive Solutions Webinar Series) under the theme ‘Indian MHCV Outlook – Is the Future Truly Electrifying’, Shelar expressed that the industry recovered quickly at a GACR of almost 14.8 percent – from the slowdown of FY2014 to the high of FY2019 – by displaying resilience and strong fundamentals. He spoke about the challenge posed by railways starting from 2010. “The rising fuel prices, a shift towards eco-friendly logistics, and an increase in technology have pushed the vehicle cost up,” he added.  

Describing the journey of M&HCV segments as a decade of discovery to a decade of disruption, Shelar said, “There were limited brands in India in 2010. By 2030 there will be multiple brand options available.” Drawing attention to a change in the customer profile, he mentioned, “The entry and exit barriers have come down and will ease further. From being acquisition and resale value sensitive in 2010, customers are now looking at Total Cost of Ownership (TCO). They are ready to experiment with new technologies and brands.” Pointing at a shift to higher capacity engines, Shelar said, “A movement towards battery-operated vehicles is also taking place. Fuel cell technologies are catching up and power requirements are ignificantly going up.” Of the opinion that average speeds have gone up and regulations and infrastructure have improved, he informed, “Trucks are traveling up to 450 km a day as compared to 275 km in 2010. By 2030, they will travel up to 700 km per day.”  

Highlighting rising affinity for technologies like telematics, Shelar mentioned, “A shift from transport to logistics model is taking place.” He drew attention to the TCO of an electric vehicle (despite high acquisition cost) being lower in comparison to the running cost of a diesel and natural gas vehicle over five years. “Fuel cost in diesel and natural gas vehicles is about 55 to 60 percent whereas, in case of the electrical vehicle, it is 14 percent,” quipped Shelar. Underlining the government’s pledge to be net zero by 2030 through measures like 500 gigawatts of non-fossil fuel electricity generation and an increase in natural gas production among others, he said, “Electric vehicle technology is relevant event though issues like high initial acquisition price and charging time will take some time to resolve.”

Drawing attention to key drivers like the FAME policy, stringent emission norms, higher compliance cost, and new business models against challenges like the high initial acquisition cost of EVs, range anxiety, developing charging infrastructure, and battery performance, Shelar said that fuel cell is the long-term technology for M&HCVs. In his presentation, Paritosh Gupta, Analyst – M&HCV Forecasting, S&P Global Mobility, averred that the global M&HCV industry headwinds include the Russia-Ukraine conflict and supply chain constraints. “The forecast for 2022 alone is a drop of about 150,000 units, which is 4.4 percent of the entire market size,” he added. Informing that major degradation has come from Europe and North America, Gupta mentioned, “In 2022, the European and North American markets have dropped by 86,000 units and 38,000 units respectively. A lot of volume from central and eastern Europe has been lost and the possibility of sales moving up smartly in the next three years is less.”  

Stating that South Asia, Middle East, and African regions are showing optimism, he explained, “The South Asian market is primarily driven by the performance of the Indian market over the last two quarters. The Chinese market was the only one in 2020 among the key regional M&HCV markets to report positive growth numbers.” Underlining China’s slowing economic growth due to factors like a highly stringent pandemic policy, ithdrawal of pandemic state support, and a shift from road to rail for bulk materials, Gupta expressed, “A 26 percent drop in 2022 and another 1.6 percent drop in 2023 is expected before recovery starts in 2024,” Announcing that the North American forecast is largely positive even though the potential for growth remains limited, he stressed on rising inflation, increasing interest rates, and manufacturing constraints. “We expect fleets to add capacity with the supply chain situation improving in 2023,” quipped Gupta.  

Describing that the Western European market is estimated to remain flattish while the Central and Eastern European market is estimated to drop by 28 percent, Gupta pointed at the Russia-Ukraine conflict and supply constraints as the reasons. Western European markets are facing challenges like raw material and truck price increase whereas the Eastern-Central European markets are facing sanctions, stoppage of production by foreign OEMs, and the possibility of Chinese OEMs setting up shops in Russia, he said. Stressing that South Asia was the fastest growing market in 2021, led by India outgrew expectations, Gupta revealed that India accounts for around 60 percent of the M&HCV sales in the region. “In 2022, the South Asian M&HCV market should grow by 7.2 percent and the figures for 2023 and 2024 will be healthy double-digit ones,” he explained. Of the opinion that the factors driving the South Asian M&HCV market include economic and industrial growth, public sector construction spending, the roll-out of new emission norms in Indonesia, comprehensive economic partnership across the region, and an increase in travel, Gupta quipped, “Struggling with chip and other raw material shortage, the Japanese and South Korean markets are expected to be largely flat.” 

Highlighting rising inflation, high import bills, and weaker global demand as Indian M&HCV headwinds, Gupta mentioned, “The outlook is largely positive though not to the extent it was two years back.” “The construction industry spending will command a CAGR of 10.1 percent between 2021 and 2026 and provide a solid impetus for M&HCV growth,” he added. Stating that while the infrastructure segment’s growth will fuel the growth of heavy-duty trucks, Gupta quipped, “The upward growth trajectory of the e-commerce industry towards becoming the second largest by 2034 is indicative of the growth in demand for medium-duty trucks.” Explaining that the rise of e-commerce and medium-duty trucks over the last five years is a parallel journey, he averred, “Expected to grow at a CAGR of 21 percent over the next 8 years as per IBEF, the e-commerce industry will give a huge boost to medium-duty trucks in India in the future.” “The government has also introduced several policies which are aimed at providing growth to the automotive industry,” he added.  

Pointing at the scrappage policy, production-linked incentive scheme, and electrification initiatives, Gupta said, “We see a big tranche of about 50,000 e-buses to come over the next five years” Of the opinion that the monopoly of Tata Motors and Ashok Leyland will continue over the next decade, he averred, “Expect the industry volumes to peak in 2025. Tata Motors will almost touch 200,000 units in 2026.” “In terms of segmental sales, heavy trucks are the largest shareholder in the (M&HCV) market and are expected to clock 275,000 units in 2026 growing at a rate of 7.8 percent,” quipped Gupta. Explaining that MCVs rise will be linked to the rise of e-commerce industry growth and will clock almost 97,000 units by 2026 at a rate of 7.3 percent, Gupta said, “Worst hit by the pandemic, the M&HCV bus segment is expected to pick up in 2022 and reach 54,000 units by 2026.” “The production trend of M&HCVs will be similar to the demand trend in the market. Some buffer will be provided by exports as part of the PLI scheme,” he added.  

On the topic of M&HCV propulsion trends, Manat Bali, Research Analyst, S&P Global Mobility, mentioned, “Electrification is happening at a much higher pace in buses than trucks. About 99 percent of the M&HCV truck market is currently belonging to IC engines comprising gas and diesel fuels. About 75 percent of the bus market is driven by IC engines running on gas and diesel. With electrification initiatives, the market share of e-buses is expected to reach 30 percent in the long run. It will reach about 9.8 percent by 2029. Natural gas market share will increase up to 12 percent by 2029, triggered mainly by increased availability. It will achieve better traction in medium-duty trucks rather than in heavy-duty ones.”

Of the opinion that diesel fuel will see a de-growth of about 9 percent by 2029 in the Indian CV market at the cost of gas and electrification, Bali averred, “The only electrification taking place in the M&HCV segments is in the bus space as of now. In the long-run, the CNG market share will continue to trail that of the e-bus market share.” “Tata Motors will continue to lead the e-bus market followed by BYD and others in the long run,” he added. About the global e-bus market in the M&HCV category, Bali mentioned, “China is a highly ature and dominant player in e-buses. Other regions are moving up with South Asia having a CAGR growth of 46 percent from 2020 to 2029. India will dominate the e-bus market in South Asia by contributing to over 90 percent of the share.” “The factors driving electrification in India include FAME, state schemes, COP26 target, PLI schemes, and taxation,” he added. “The hindrances in electrification include regulatory drawbacks, infrastructure issues, cost concerns, and end-user dilemmas,” Bali concluded.  

Recorded webinar session Available on Demand, please click the link below to watch the session:

https://event.on24.com/wcc/r/3673674/7F886C4E4B36403DD80C623612674EFF?partnerref=motoringtrends
 

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In what is seen as a global energy crisis on the back of the ongoing war between Iran and USA-Israel, is now also expected to have an impact on the Indian transport sector.

Bal Malkit Singh, Advisor & Former President – All India Motor Transport Congress (AIMTC), has called for proactive government measures to protect the economy and the road transport sector from the effects of escalating tensions in the Middle East. The warning follows a surge in crude oil prices to nearly USD 95 per barrel and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz as of late February 2026.

The road transport sector is experiencing a slowdown due to reduced industrial output. Industry observations indicate a decline of up to 50 percent in certain segments, with projections suggesting this could reach 70–80 percent if current disruptions persist.

Furthermore, it can also lead to rising prices for fuel, lubricants, tyres and AdBlue (urea). He has expressed concerns over driver migration due to fewer work opportunities and the closure or price increases at highway eateries.

The ‘energy war’ scenario is impacting the wider MSME ecosystem, leading to higher production costs and operational challenges for small businesses and trading establishments.

Singh has urged the government to implement policy support to maintain economic stability, emphasising that the transport sector serves as the lifeline for domestic trade.

Proposed interventions include:

• Deferment of Equated Monthly Instalments (EMIs).
• Introduction of soft loan schemes.
• Targeted tax relaxations for transporters and MSMEs.

Bal Malkit Singh, said, “The current geo-political developments are an early warning signal for our economy. The road transport sector, being the lifeline of trade and commerce, is already experiencing stress due to reduced movement and rising operational costs. If timely interventions are not considered, the situation could escalate significantly in the coming weeks. It is essential to support MSMEs and transporters through relief measures such as deferment of EMIs, soft loan schemes, and tax relaxations to ensure business continuity and economic stability.”

Image credit: Samuel Wolfl/Pexels

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Euro NCAP has announced that Allianz has joined the Safer Trucks programme as an Associate Member, which combines vehicle safety assessment with commercial risk data.

The Safer Trucks programme, launched in 2024, provides safety ratings for heavy goods vehicles (HGVs). In its first two years, the initiative has assessed 30 truck models and identified safety gaps in the freight sector. Data indicates that in collisions involving HGVs, 90 percent of fatalities are occupants of other vehicles or pedestrians and cyclists. Freight transport accounts for the movement of 95 percent of goods across the EU.

Allianz operates in 70 countries and will contribute expertise on risk trends and claims data. The Allianz Center for Technology will serve as the centre for automotive technology and traffic safety to promote vehicle safety.

The involvement of insurers in safety assessments aims to inform manufacturers and fleet operators about areas for improvement. According to the programme, avoiding accidents reduces repair costs and downtime, which can lead to lower insurance premiums for fleets.

Matthew Avery, Director of Strategic Development, Euro NCAP, said, “We are delighted to welcome Allianz to the Safer Trucks programme. Their expertise in risk and casualty analysis adds a valuable new dimension to our multi-disciplinary approach. Safer Trucks is designed not only to benchmark safety performance but also to catalyse improvements in truck design and technology. By integrating risk insight from Allianz with our independent testing data, we aim to accelerate safety innovation across the commercial vehicle sector.”

Matthias Trustedt, Head of Global P&C, Allianz SE, said, “Joining Euro NCAP’s Safer Trucks initiative aligns with our commitment to reducing road risk through evidence-based insights. We believe that independent safety ratings, tied to real-world risk data, can influence both purchasing decisions and the development of safer vehicle technologies. Allianz is proud to support this important work, to help fleet operators make informed choices that protect drivers and other road users, and to offer them tailored and risk-based insurance solutions.”

Christian Sahr, MD, Allianz Center for Technology, said, “Our accident research shows that modern safety systems in trucks can significantly reduce the number of serious accidents. In addition to protecting life, avoiding accidents brings economic benefits for fleet operators because a fleet with lower repair and downtime costs is more efficient, offers better working conditions for drivers, and has significantly lower insurance premiums. Through our cooperation with Euro NCAP, we see excellent opportunities to use our combined expertise to improve the market penetration of safety systems that are already available and that contribute to accident prevention.”

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Piaggio Vehicles (PVPL), a subsidiary of the Piaggio Group, has secured an order for more than 100 units of its Ape Xtra Bada 700 cargo three-wheeler from HeidelbergCement India.

The three-wheelers will be deployed across 53 districts in Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Bihar. This order marks the entry of the new diesel cargo model into industrial applications.

The Ape Xtra Bada 700 features a 700 DI diesel engine, a 7-foot cargo deck and a payload capacity of 750 kg, which is the highest in the three-wheeler cargo segment. The vehicle is equipped with 12-inch radial tyres, a digital instrument cluster with a 3.5-inch LCD and an optional rear sensor for reversing.

The vehicle architecture includes a chassis and suspension geometry designed for stability and load distribution. The cabin is engineered for long-distance operation and the engine is tuned for torque and pickup. Piaggio offers a five-year warranty on the model. The company positions this three-wheeler as a replacement for entry-level four-wheeler small commercial vehicles (SCVs) due to its operating economics.

Amit Sagar, Executive Vice President, CV Domestic Business & Retail Finance, Piaggio Vehicles, said, “This flagship order from Heidelberg Cement India Limited is a strong validation of the Ape Xtra Bada 700’s disruptive capabilities. At Piaggio India, we have always believed in pushing the boundaries of innovation in the last-mile mobility segment. The Ape Xtra Bada 700 sets new industry benchmarks in engine capacity, deck size and payload, and is designed to empower customers with more productivity and superior earnings. Breaking into applications traditionally dominated by 4-wheeler SCV marks an important milestone in our journey of offering better TCO and profitability to our customers.”

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Tata Motors, one of the leading commercial vehicle manufacturers, has received orders for more than 5,000 buses and bus chassis from various State Transport Undertakings (STUs) across India. The company secured these orders through a competitive e-bidding process with deliveries scheduled to take place in phases according to agreements with the respective transport corporations.

The orders were placed by several organisations, including the Maharashtra State Road Transport Corporation (MSRTC), Gujarat State Road Transport Corporation (GSRTC) and the Telangana State Road Transport Corporation (TGSRTC), among others. The contract includes models such as the Tata Magna, Cityride and Starbus, as well as LPO 1618, 1622 and 1822 chassis variants. These vehicles are designed for intercity, long-haul and intracity operations.

The company's passenger vehicle portfolio includes vehicles ranging from 9-seater to 55-seater capacities. To support these fleets, Tata Motors provides Sampoorna Seva 2.0, a vehicle lifecycle management programme. This service includes maintenance, spare parts availability and breakdown assistance through a network of over 4,500 sales and service touchpoints.

Anand S, Vice-President and Head, Commercial Passenger Vehicle Business, Tata Motors, said, “This recognition by multiple State Transport Undertakings reflects the deep trust placed in Tata Motors’ mobility solutions. Our buses are designed to deliver comfort, safety and long‑term reliability across varied terrains and duty cycles. With strong product engineering and a lifecycle support ecosystem built around customer uptime, we continue to enable STUs to serve millions of passengers every day. These cumulative orders strengthen our position as the country’s preferred mobility partner and reinforce our commitment to shaping India’s public transport of tomorrow.”

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