Outlining the journey of M&HCVs for the last 12 years and how they have reflected IIP growth in India, Jayesh Shelar, Head – Product Management Group, Mahindra Truck & Bus Division, Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd, mentioned, “The last decade was one of discovery and presented key challenges like the 3 emission cycles. The BS IV to BS VI emission norm transition was the fastest in the world.” In his presentation as part of the webinar organized by S&P Global Mobility- formerly IHS Markit Automotive- (as part of their 2022 Automotive Solutions Webinar Series) under the theme ‘Indian MHCV Outlook – Is the Future Truly Electrifying’, Shelar expressed that the industry recovered quickly at a GACR of almost 14.8 percent – from the slowdown of FY2014 to the high of FY2019 – by displaying resilience and strong fundamentals. He spoke about the challenge posed by railways starting from 2010. “The rising fuel prices, a shift towards eco-friendly logistics, and an increase in technology have pushed the vehicle cost up,” he added.  

Describing the journey of M&HCV segments as a decade of discovery to a decade of disruption, Shelar said, “There were limited brands in India in 2010. By 2030 there will be multiple brand options available.” Drawing attention to a change in the customer profile, he mentioned, “The entry and exit barriers have come down and will ease further. From being acquisition and resale value sensitive in 2010, customers are now looking at Total Cost of Ownership (TCO). They are ready to experiment with new technologies and brands.” Pointing at a shift to higher capacity engines, Shelar said, “A movement towards battery-operated vehicles is also taking place. Fuel cell technologies are catching up and power requirements are ignificantly going up.” Of the opinion that average speeds have gone up and regulations and infrastructure have improved, he informed, “Trucks are traveling up to 450 km a day as compared to 275 km in 2010. By 2030, they will travel up to 700 km per day.”  

Highlighting rising affinity for technologies like telematics, Shelar mentioned, “A shift from transport to logistics model is taking place.” He drew attention to the TCO of an electric vehicle (despite high acquisition cost) being lower in comparison to the running cost of a diesel and natural gas vehicle over five years. “Fuel cost in diesel and natural gas vehicles is about 55 to 60 percent whereas, in case of the electrical vehicle, it is 14 percent,” quipped Shelar. Underlining the government’s pledge to be net zero by 2030 through measures like 500 gigawatts of non-fossil fuel electricity generation and an increase in natural gas production among others, he said, “Electric vehicle technology is relevant event though issues like high initial acquisition price and charging time will take some time to resolve.”

Drawing attention to key drivers like the FAME policy, stringent emission norms, higher compliance cost, and new business models against challenges like the high initial acquisition cost of EVs, range anxiety, developing charging infrastructure, and battery performance, Shelar said that fuel cell is the long-term technology for M&HCVs. In his presentation, Paritosh Gupta, Analyst – M&HCV Forecasting, S&P Global Mobility, averred that the global M&HCV industry headwinds include the Russia-Ukraine conflict and supply chain constraints. “The forecast for 2022 alone is a drop of about 150,000 units, which is 4.4 percent of the entire market size,” he added. Informing that major degradation has come from Europe and North America, Gupta mentioned, “In 2022, the European and North American markets have dropped by 86,000 units and 38,000 units respectively. A lot of volume from central and eastern Europe has been lost and the possibility of sales moving up smartly in the next three years is less.”  

Stating that South Asia, Middle East, and African regions are showing optimism, he explained, “The South Asian market is primarily driven by the performance of the Indian market over the last two quarters. The Chinese market was the only one in 2020 among the key regional M&HCV markets to report positive growth numbers.” Underlining China’s slowing economic growth due to factors like a highly stringent pandemic policy, ithdrawal of pandemic state support, and a shift from road to rail for bulk materials, Gupta expressed, “A 26 percent drop in 2022 and another 1.6 percent drop in 2023 is expected before recovery starts in 2024,” Announcing that the North American forecast is largely positive even though the potential for growth remains limited, he stressed on rising inflation, increasing interest rates, and manufacturing constraints. “We expect fleets to add capacity with the supply chain situation improving in 2023,” quipped Gupta.  

Describing that the Western European market is estimated to remain flattish while the Central and Eastern European market is estimated to drop by 28 percent, Gupta pointed at the Russia-Ukraine conflict and supply constraints as the reasons. Western European markets are facing challenges like raw material and truck price increase whereas the Eastern-Central European markets are facing sanctions, stoppage of production by foreign OEMs, and the possibility of Chinese OEMs setting up shops in Russia, he said. Stressing that South Asia was the fastest growing market in 2021, led by India outgrew expectations, Gupta revealed that India accounts for around 60 percent of the M&HCV sales in the region. “In 2022, the South Asian M&HCV market should grow by 7.2 percent and the figures for 2023 and 2024 will be healthy double-digit ones,” he explained. Of the opinion that the factors driving the South Asian M&HCV market include economic and industrial growth, public sector construction spending, the roll-out of new emission norms in Indonesia, comprehensive economic partnership across the region, and an increase in travel, Gupta quipped, “Struggling with chip and other raw material shortage, the Japanese and South Korean markets are expected to be largely flat.” 

Highlighting rising inflation, high import bills, and weaker global demand as Indian M&HCV headwinds, Gupta mentioned, “The outlook is largely positive though not to the extent it was two years back.” “The construction industry spending will command a CAGR of 10.1 percent between 2021 and 2026 and provide a solid impetus for M&HCV growth,” he added. Stating that while the infrastructure segment’s growth will fuel the growth of heavy-duty trucks, Gupta quipped, “The upward growth trajectory of the e-commerce industry towards becoming the second largest by 2034 is indicative of the growth in demand for medium-duty trucks.” Explaining that the rise of e-commerce and medium-duty trucks over the last five years is a parallel journey, he averred, “Expected to grow at a CAGR of 21 percent over the next 8 years as per IBEF, the e-commerce industry will give a huge boost to medium-duty trucks in India in the future.” “The government has also introduced several policies which are aimed at providing growth to the automotive industry,” he added.  

Pointing at the scrappage policy, production-linked incentive scheme, and electrification initiatives, Gupta said, “We see a big tranche of about 50,000 e-buses to come over the next five years” Of the opinion that the monopoly of Tata Motors and Ashok Leyland will continue over the next decade, he averred, “Expect the industry volumes to peak in 2025. Tata Motors will almost touch 200,000 units in 2026.” “In terms of segmental sales, heavy trucks are the largest shareholder in the (M&HCV) market and are expected to clock 275,000 units in 2026 growing at a rate of 7.8 percent,” quipped Gupta. Explaining that MCVs rise will be linked to the rise of e-commerce industry growth and will clock almost 97,000 units by 2026 at a rate of 7.3 percent, Gupta said, “Worst hit by the pandemic, the M&HCV bus segment is expected to pick up in 2022 and reach 54,000 units by 2026.” “The production trend of M&HCVs will be similar to the demand trend in the market. Some buffer will be provided by exports as part of the PLI scheme,” he added.  

On the topic of M&HCV propulsion trends, Manat Bali, Research Analyst, S&P Global Mobility, mentioned, “Electrification is happening at a much higher pace in buses than trucks. About 99 percent of the M&HCV truck market is currently belonging to IC engines comprising gas and diesel fuels. About 75 percent of the bus market is driven by IC engines running on gas and diesel. With electrification initiatives, the market share of e-buses is expected to reach 30 percent in the long run. It will reach about 9.8 percent by 2029. Natural gas market share will increase up to 12 percent by 2029, triggered mainly by increased availability. It will achieve better traction in medium-duty trucks rather than in heavy-duty ones.”

Of the opinion that diesel fuel will see a de-growth of about 9 percent by 2029 in the Indian CV market at the cost of gas and electrification, Bali averred, “The only electrification taking place in the M&HCV segments is in the bus space as of now. In the long-run, the CNG market share will continue to trail that of the e-bus market share.” “Tata Motors will continue to lead the e-bus market followed by BYD and others in the long run,” he added. About the global e-bus market in the M&HCV category, Bali mentioned, “China is a highly ature and dominant player in e-buses. Other regions are moving up with South Asia having a CAGR growth of 46 percent from 2020 to 2029. India will dominate the e-bus market in South Asia by contributing to over 90 percent of the share.” “The factors driving electrification in India include FAME, state schemes, COP26 target, PLI schemes, and taxation,” he added. “The hindrances in electrification include regulatory drawbacks, infrastructure issues, cost concerns, and end-user dilemmas,” Bali concluded.  

Recorded webinar session Available on Demand, please click the link below to watch the session:

https://event.on24.com/wcc/r/3673674/7F886C4E4B36403DD80C623612674EFF?partnerref=motoringtrends
 

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It was on 30 July 2025, Tata Motors announced it had reached an agreement with European automaker Iveco Group to acquire its commercial vehicle, powertrain and finance business for EUR 3.8 billion. The transaction to be financed through a mix of equity and debt will complement Tata Motors’ frugal engineering and robust product portfolio with Iveco Group’s global product portfolio, technology and ecosystem.

Tata Motors expects to raise around EUR 1 billion through equity, along with monetising its stake in Tata Capital to help repay the EUR 3.8 billion bridge loan to acquire Iveco Group.

The new company will be able to drive better operating leverage by spreading its capital investments over larger volumes, generating important efficiencies and reducing the cash flow volatility inherent in the commercial vehicles sector. It will also enable the capabilities of Iveco Group’s successful powertrain business, FPT, to be further enhanced.

Explaining the rationale behind the move, P B Balaji, Group CFO, Tata Motors, stated that the commercial vehicle business is different from the passenger vehicle business.

“CV segment sees steady business; the disruption levels are slow and gradual. They are not very intense, and it takes a lot of time to build the brand presence, establish a financing arm, market products; therefore only way to grow substantially through inorganic means becomes part of the milestone,” he said.

Tata Motors has been working on splitting its passenger vehicle business and commercial vehicle business, with the CV business expected to be listed as an individual entity in October 2025.

Together with this move, the new combined entity, Balaji stated, will create the “world’s fourth largest CV maker and in touching distance of the number 2 and 3 in the above 6-tonne category.”

He revealed that the discussions with Iveco had been ongoing for the last six months, since the latter decided to spin it off its defence business.

“Tata Motors had never been financially strong enough to take such a move, with Iveco deciding to spin-off its defence business, one has to move very fast to diversify the portfolio and grow CV business,” he said.

The acquisition involves Iveco’s four business operations – Trucks, Buses, FPT Industrial (engine) and Iveco Capital (financing).

Together, the partners will not only complement product portfolios and capabilities but eventually benefit from substantially no overlap in their industrial and geographic footprints, creating a stronger, more diversified entity with a significant global presence and sales of over 540,000 units per year. Together, Iveco and the commercial vehicle business of Tata Motors will have combined revenues of EUR 22 billion split across Europe (50 percent), India (35 percent) and the Americas (15 percent) with attractive positions in emerging markets in Asia and Africa.

Unlimited Pathways 2.0

In what is described as the next frontier of growth for the combined entity, Balaji revealed that they will co-develop a joint roadmap christened ‘Unlimited Pathways 2.0’, which aims to define new technology-led synergy initiatives once the transaction closes in April 2026.

This is said to ‘lift the ambition for both companies to a very different level’, along with clearly defining cross-border synergies.

As per Balaji, the return on capital employed (ROCE) for the combined entity will stabilise at 20 percent, with room to grow earnings significantly. At present, for Tata Motors, the ROCE is around 40 percent, while for Iveco it is 14 percent.

“Together we believe we can actually generate substantial value, we can triple our revenue and quadruple some of our profitability numbers amongst the two of us to ensure that it still generates a 20 percent kind of a ROCE,” said Balaji.

Tata Motors, on its path, will benefit from access to Iveco’s advanced investments in the areas of technology, alternative energy, which the Indian CV market has not yet seen in a big way.

“The brand is complementary, therefore customer groups/cohorts which we were not addressed with Tata Motors brand, can now essentially be addressed with Iveco, that is the premium end of the market. Secondly, the frugal engineering capabilities we have in India, will certainly be of help for Iveco to optimise and bring design to value thinking. Thirdly, Iveco has been invested ahead of time, as in what India has been doing on various technologies, be it powertrain, software-defined vehicles (SDVs) and ADAS, among others. These are some of the technologies that we can adopt for the Indian market ahead of time, and at the same time bring in frugal engineering that will help Iveco in turn,” explained Girish Wagh, Executive Director, Tata Motors.

He further stated that the idea is to work together and complement each other wherever possible. “As we go ahead, we will put mechanisms and thoughts in place, and how we can synergies and govern the entities as ‘one Tata Motors commercial vehicle’.”

Adding to that, Balaji stated, “We also want to be sure that there will be specific areas for sure, where we would like to keep it as different as each other, as part of our learning from the Jaguar Land Rover experience. Iveco brand, the channel, we would want it to be absolutely independent, where there are two different markets it serves. But there are areas where they may overlap. And as we understand each other, the overlap will increase, but it is first important to understand each other, get the cultural sensitivities taped up between the two companies, and build the trust. At the end of the day, it is the excitement of winning together that is the first focus, and we will do it in a measured manner together with Iveco team. Engaging with them for the last six months, the mutual chemistry is excellent in ensuring that we co-create the agenda together. So that we can start lifting the ambition for both companies to a very different level.”

Sharing his expectations from unlocking the combined synergies, Balaji stated “A lot of people are seeing this as 2 + 2 together, if that is just going to be 4, we have a problem. I would want to see how this can translate to a 6 or a 8 or 20 if we can pull it off,” emphasising his significant expectations from the behemoth.

Existing partnerships to continue

Tata Motors and Iveco have established their brand over the years, the network, the supply chain and partnerships. Despite the announcement, there are still a lot many areas where decisions have yet to be made.

In India, Iveco, through FPT Industrial, is supplying LNG engines to Pune-based Blue Energy Motors, in which the company also has acquired a minority stake. Responding to a query on whether Tata Motors is looking to use Iveco’s LNG powertrains for its products, Balaji said that there were a lot of areas where they are still trying to figure out the future course of action.

Adding to that Wagh said, “There are possibilities for powertrain synergies with Iveco, but we have a very strong and long-lasting partnership with Cummins in India for powertrains for more than 33 years. We use their engines, especially in medium and heavy commercial vehicles and will continue to do so. In addition, we also formed a step-down JV to accelerate our efforts towards zero zero-emission solution – hydrogen ICE, hydrogen fuel cell or battery electric. We will continue to work on that. There are also products in our portfolio, where FPT Industrial has powertrains in both ICE diesel and gaseous fuels. We will certainly explore the synergies, which will improve the competitiveness of our products in these markets.  

Tata Motors also confirmed that as part of the deal, it will get access and nurture all the IPs, capabilities, and design from Iveco, including cabin partnership and fuel-cell with Hyundai.

Going forward, the partnership is expected to see Tata Motors introducing Iveco products in India and other markets where it has a strong geographical presence, while it will utilise Iveco’s ecosystem to introduce Tata Motors’ range of CVs.

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In what comes as a major announcement in the commercial vehicle industry, Tata Motors, one of India’s leading CV player, is set to acquire Europe’s Iveco Group’s CV business for EUR 3.8 billion. The transaction, if approved, is expected to close in the first half of 2026.

The deal once through will create a ‘force majeure’ in the global CV industry, combining Tata Motors’ frugal engineering strength with Iveco Group’s strength in electrification and the alternative energy domain.

The offer, made by Tata Motors CV Holdings (a Tata Motors affiliate), aims to acquire 100 percent of Iveco’s common shares post the separation of Iveco’s defence business. The tender offer price is set at EUR 14.1 per share, with an additional estimated EUR 5.5–6.0 per share dividend to be distributed from the proceeds of the defence business sale.

Exor N.V., Iveco's largest shareholder, has agreed to tender its 27.06 percent stake and support the proposed resolutions at Iveco’s upcoming extraordinary general meeting (EGM). The deal has the unanimous backing of Iveco's board, which has recommended the offer to its shareholders.

The combined group will operate across key markets including Europe (50 percent), India (35 percent) and the Americas (15 percent), with annual sales of approximately 540,000 units and combined revenue of around EUR 22 billion. Tata Motors and Iveco expect the partnership to enhance their ability to invest in zero-emission transport, optimise global supply chains and expand product innovation.

Subject to regulatory approvals and shareholder support, the parties plan to finalise the separation of Iveco’s defence business by March 2026. Should this not occur through a sale, the business will be spun off into a newly listed entity by April 2026 to allow the main offer to proceed.

As part of the understanding, Tata Motors has also committed to a two-year non-financial covenant period post-settlement, including no direct workforce reductions or plant closures and preserving Iveco’s identity, brands and headquarters in Turin, Italy.

Both companies emphasised that the move will establish a globally competitive platform equipped to address shifting mobility trends and create long-term value for stakeholders.

The combined group will be better positioned to invest in and deliver innovative, sustainable mobility solutions by leveraging both supplier networks to serve customers globally. It will also unlock superior growth opportunities and create significant value for all stakeholders in a dynamic marketplace. By preserving each group’s industrial footprint and employee communities, this complementarity is also expected to foster a smooth and successful integration process. It will also enable the capabilities of Iveco Group’s successful powertrain business, FPT, to be further enhanced.

Natarajan Chandrasekaran, Chairman, Tata Motors, said, “This is a logical next step following the demerger of the Tata Motors Commercial Vehicle business and will allow the combined group to compete on a truly global basis with two strategic home markets in India and Europe. The combined group's complementary businesses and greater reach will enhance our ability to invest boldly. I look forward to securing the necessary approvals and concluding the transaction in the coming months.”

Suzanne Heywood, Chair, Iveco Group, said, "We are proud to announce this strategically significant combination, which brings together two businesses with a shared vision for sustainable mobility. Moreover, the reinforced prospects of the new combination are strongly positive in terms of the security of employment and industrial footprint of Iveco Group as a whole.”

Girish Wagh, Executive Director, Tata Motors, said, "This combination is a strategic leap forward in our ambition to build a future-ready commercial vehicle ecosystem. By integrating the strengths of both organisations we are unlocking new avenues for operational excellence, product innovation and customer-centric solutions. This partnership not only enhances our ability to serve diverse mobility needs across markets, but also reinforces our commitment to delivering sustainable transport solutions that are aligned with global megatrends. Together, we are shaping a resilient and agile enterprise, equipped to lead in times of transformative change."

Olof Persson, CEO, Iveco Group, said, “By joining forces with Tata Motors, we are unlocking new potential to further enhance our industrial capabilities, accelerate innovation in zero-emission transport, and expand our reach in key global markets. This combination will allow us to better serve our customers with a broader, more advanced product portfolio and deliver long-term value to all stakeholders.”

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Mumbai-based automotive major Mahindra & Mahindra has no plans to develop electric bus under its own brand, in fact, it is betting on SML Isuzu’s development to roll out its first e-bus offering.

It was in April 2025, Mahindra officially announced its plans to acquire majority stake in commercial vehicle major SML Isuzu, which would play a key role in strengthening its footprint in the CV industry.

At present, Mahindra holds a modest 3 percent market share in this space, compared to its dominant 52 percent share in the <3.5-tonne light commercial vehicle (LCV) market. With the addition of SML’s capabilities and brand strength, Mahindra expects to immediately double its market share to 6 percent, and is aiming for 10–12 percent by FY2031 and over 20 percent by FY2036.

In a recent investor call, Rajesh Jejurikar, Executive Director and CEO, Auto and Farm Sector, Mahindra & Mahindra, revealed that “SML Isuzu has developed its electric bus, whatever we do will be through that entity. There is no plan to do any e-bus in the Mahindra portfolio.”

In theory, this would enable Mahindra to continue to focus on its ICE-portfolio, while the integration of SML Isuzu will enable it to leverage the development of an alternative energy portfolio, such as CNG and electric powertrains in the CV segment.

What would be interesting to note is that with SML Isuzu's electric bus platform, will Mahindra also look at cross-badging as an option? Only time can tell. 

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Tata Motors, one of the largest commercial vehicle manufacturers in India, is set to further strengthen its business with the acquisition of Italian CV major Iveco for USD 4.5 billion, said an Economic Times report.

The move is one of the largest acquisitions for Tata Motors’, and is said to be the second largest acquisition for the Tata Group after Corus.

While there has been no formal announcement from either party on such a negotiation between them, a formal update from Iveco stated that ‘it is engaged in ongoing, advanced discussions with different parties for potential transactions involving its defence business, on the one hand, and the balance of the company (CV business) on the other.’

For the unversed, Iveco operates several businesses: it produces commercial vehicles for road and off-road use, including models with natural gas and ecological diesel engines. Iveco Bus focuses on passenger transport, offering urban and intercity buses, tourism coaches and minibuses, with an emphasis on sustainable mobility solutions like natural gas and electric vehicles. Heuliez specialises in electric city buses, with a history of developing electric mobility products. FPT Industrial manufactures industrial powertrains and alternative propulsion systems for various vehicle types and power generation, also developing electric propulsion and energy storage solutions.

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