The Indian MHCV Outlook

The Indian MHCV Outlook

Outlining the journey of M&HCVs for the last 12 years and how they have reflected IIP growth in India, Jayesh Shelar, Head – Product Management Group, Mahindra Truck & Bus Division, Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd, mentioned, “The last decade was one of discovery and presented key challenges like the 3 emission cycles. The BS IV to BS VI emission norm transition was the fastest in the world.” In his presentation as part of the webinar organized by S&P Global Mobility- formerly IHS Markit Automotive- (as part of their 2022 Automotive Solutions Webinar Series) under the theme ‘Indian MHCV Outlook – Is the Future Truly Electrifying’, Shelar expressed that the industry recovered quickly at a GACR of almost 14.8 percent – from the slowdown of FY2014 to the high of FY2019 – by displaying resilience and strong fundamentals. He spoke about the challenge posed by railways starting from 2010. “The rising fuel prices, a shift towards eco-friendly logistics, and an increase in technology have pushed the vehicle cost up,” he added.  

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Describing the journey of M&HCV segments as a decade of discovery to a decade of disruption, Shelar said, “There were limited brands in India in 2010. By 2030 there will be multiple brand options available.” Drawing attention to a change in the customer profile, he mentioned, “The entry and exit barriers have come down and will ease further. From being acquisition and resale value sensitive in 2010, customers are now looking at Total Cost of Ownership (TCO). They are ready to experiment with new technologies and brands.” Pointing at a shift to higher capacity engines, Shelar said, “A movement towards battery-operated vehicles is also taking place. Fuel cell technologies are catching up and power requirements are ignificantly going up.” Of the opinion that average speeds have gone up and regulations and infrastructure have improved, he informed, “Trucks are traveling up to 450 km a day as compared to 275 km in 2010. By 2030, they will travel up to 700 km per day.”  

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Highlighting rising affinity for technologies like telematics, Shelar mentioned, “A shift from transport to logistics model is taking place.” He drew attention to the TCO of an electric vehicle (despite high acquisition cost) being lower in comparison to the running cost of a diesel and natural gas vehicle over five years. “Fuel cost in diesel and natural gas vehicles is about 55 to 60 percent whereas, in case of the electrical vehicle, it is 14 percent,” quipped Shelar. Underlining the government’s pledge to be net zero by 2030 through measures like 500 gigawatts of non-fossil fuel electricity generation and an increase in natural gas production among others, he said, “Electric vehicle technology is relevant event though issues like high initial acquisition price and charging time will take some time to resolve.”

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Drawing attention to key drivers like the FAME policy, stringent emission norms, higher compliance cost, and new business models against challenges like the high initial acquisition cost of EVs, range anxiety, developing charging infrastructure, and battery performance, Shelar said that fuel cell is the long-term technology for M&HCVs. In his presentation, Paritosh Gupta, Analyst – M&HCV Forecasting, S&P Global Mobility, averred that the global M&HCV industry headwinds include the Russia-Ukraine conflict and supply chain constraints. “The forecast for 2022 alone is a drop of about 150,000 units, which is 4.4 percent of the entire market size,” he added. Informing that major degradation has come from Europe and North America, Gupta mentioned, “In 2022, the European and North American markets have dropped by 86,000 units and 38,000 units respectively. A lot of volume from central and eastern Europe has been lost and the possibility of sales moving up smartly in the next three years is less.”  

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Stating that South Asia, Middle East, and African regions are showing optimism, he explained, “The South Asian market is primarily driven by the performance of the Indian market over the last two quarters. The Chinese market was the only one in 2020 among the key regional M&HCV markets to report positive growth numbers.” Underlining China’s slowing economic growth due to factors like a highly stringent pandemic policy, ithdrawal of pandemic state support, and a shift from road to rail for bulk materials, Gupta expressed, “A 26 percent drop in 2022 and another 1.6 percent drop in 2023 is expected before recovery starts in 2024,” Announcing that the North American forecast is largely positive even though the potential for growth remains limited, he stressed on rising inflation, increasing interest rates, and manufacturing constraints. “We expect fleets to add capacity with the supply chain situation improving in 2023,” quipped Gupta.  

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Describing that the Western European market is estimated to remain flattish while the Central and Eastern European market is estimated to drop by 28 percent, Gupta pointed at the Russia-Ukraine conflict and supply constraints as the reasons. Western European markets are facing challenges like raw material and truck price increase whereas the Eastern-Central European markets are facing sanctions, stoppage of production by foreign OEMs, and the possibility of Chinese OEMs setting up shops in Russia, he said. Stressing that South Asia was the fastest growing market in 2021, led by India outgrew expectations, Gupta revealed that India accounts for around 60 percent of the M&HCV sales in the region. “In 2022, the South Asian M&HCV market should grow by 7.2 percent and the figures for 2023 and 2024 will be healthy double-digit ones,” he explained. Of the opinion that the factors driving the South Asian M&HCV market include economic and industrial growth, public sector construction spending, the roll-out of new emission norms in Indonesia, comprehensive economic partnership across the region, and an increase in travel, Gupta quipped, “Struggling with chip and other raw material shortage, the Japanese and South Korean markets are expected to be largely flat.” 

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Highlighting rising inflation, high import bills, and weaker global demand as Indian M&HCV headwinds, Gupta mentioned, “The outlook is largely positive though not to the extent it was two years back.” “The construction industry spending will command a CAGR of 10.1 percent between 2021 and 2026 and provide a solid impetus for M&HCV growth,” he added. Stating that while the infrastructure segment’s growth will fuel the growth of heavy-duty trucks, Gupta quipped, “The upward growth trajectory of the e-commerce industry towards becoming the second largest by 2034 is indicative of the growth in demand for medium-duty trucks.” Explaining that the rise of e-commerce and medium-duty trucks over the last five years is a parallel journey, he averred, “Expected to grow at a CAGR of 21 percent over the next 8 years as per IBEF, the e-commerce industry will give a huge boost to medium-duty trucks in India in the future.” “The government has also introduced several policies which are aimed at providing growth to the automotive industry,” he added.  

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Pointing at the scrappage policy, production-linked incentive scheme, and electrification initiatives, Gupta said, “We see a big tranche of about 50,000 e-buses to come over the next five years” Of the opinion that the monopoly of Tata Motors and Ashok Leyland will continue over the next decade, he averred, “Expect the industry volumes to peak in 2025. Tata Motors will almost touch 200,000 units in 2026.” “In terms of segmental sales, heavy trucks are the largest shareholder in the (M&HCV) market and are expected to clock 275,000 units in 2026 growing at a rate of 7.8 percent,” quipped Gupta. Explaining that MCVs rise will be linked to the rise of e-commerce industry growth and will clock almost 97,000 units by 2026 at a rate of 7.3 percent, Gupta said, “Worst hit by the pandemic, the M&HCV bus segment is expected to pick up in 2022 and reach 54,000 units by 2026.” “The production trend of M&HCVs will be similar to the demand trend in the market. Some buffer will be provided by exports as part of the PLI scheme,” he added.  

On the topic of M&HCV propulsion trends, Manat Bali, Research Analyst, S&P Global Mobility, mentioned, “Electrification is happening at a much higher pace in buses than trucks. About 99 percent of the M&HCV truck market is currently belonging to IC engines comprising gas and diesel fuels. About 75 percent of the bus market is driven by IC engines running on gas and diesel. With electrification initiatives, the market share of e-buses is expected to reach 30 percent in the long run. It will reach about 9.8 percent by 2029. Natural gas market share will increase up to 12 percent by 2029, triggered mainly by increased availability. It will achieve better traction in medium-duty trucks rather than in heavy-duty ones.”

Of the opinion that diesel fuel will see a de-growth of about 9 percent by 2029 in the Indian CV market at the cost of gas and electrification, Bali averred, “The only electrification taking place in the M&HCV segments is in the bus space as of now. In the long-run, the CNG market share will continue to trail that of the e-bus market share.” “Tata Motors will continue to lead the e-bus market followed by BYD and others in the long run,” he added. About the global e-bus market in the M&HCV category, Bali mentioned, “China is a highly ature and dominant player in e-buses. Other regions are moving up with South Asia having a CAGR growth of 46 percent from 2020 to 2029. India will dominate the e-bus market in South Asia by contributing to over 90 percent of the share.” “The factors driving electrification in India include FAME, state schemes, COP26 target, PLI schemes, and taxation,” he added. “The hindrances in electrification include regulatory drawbacks, infrastructure issues, cost concerns, and end-user dilemmas,” Bali concluded.  

Recorded webinar session Available on Demand, please click the link below to watch the session:

https://event.on24.com/wcc/r/3673674/7F886C4E4B36403DD80C623612674EFF?partnerref=motoringtrends
 

Tata Motors Secures Orders For Over 3,400 Electric Commercial Vehicles

Tata Motors eSCV

Mumbai-headquartered commercial vehicle major Tata Motors has secured orders for more than 3,400 electric commercial vehicles (eCVs), covering freight, logistics and passenger mobility sectors. The orders include approximately 2,000 small commercial vehicles (SCVs) & pick-ups, 900 trucks and 500 buses.

The eCVs will be deployed across industries, including e-commerce, logistics, FMCG, FMCD distribution, intra-city transport, mining and inter-city passenger travel.

The company stated that electric mobility in commercial vehicles is shifting from early adoption to large-scale deployment in India, with usage expanding across segments and real-world applications.

Tata Motors stated that it is leading this transition with the widest portfolio of electric commercial vehicles, supported by an enabling ecosystem that ensures electrification is both practical and profitable. Beyond vehicles, the company is partnering closely with fleet owners and customers to optimise performance, uptime, charging and financing across the entire lifecycle. As adoption of electric commercial vehicles deepens, Tata Motors remains focused on delivering customised, end-to-end solutions that enable customers to transition confidently and seamlessly to zero-emission mobility.

Portfolio Expansion

Over the past 12 months, Tata Motors has expanded its eCV portfolio to include Ace Pro EV, Ace EV, and Intra EV for distribution in the Small Commercial Vehicles segment.

Ultra EV range (7-12T), Prima EV 55T tractor and Prima EV 28T tipper in the Intermediate and Heavy-Duty segment. For passenger mobility, it has introduced the Starbus EV and Ultra EV buses.

Till date, Tata Motors has over 3,800 electric buses in operation, which have covered a cumulative distance of more than 550 million kilometres. Additionally, there are over 17,000 Tata eSCVs on the road.

To support the adoption of these vehicles, the company has established a charging network through partnerships with over 14 charge point operators, alongside financing solutions, fleet management tools via Fleet Edge and uptime assurance programmes.

Prawaas 5.0

Prawaas 5.0, India’s premier multimodal passenger mobility event, is scheduled to take place from 9–11 July 2026 at the Helipad Exhibition Centre (HEC) in Gandhinagar, Gujarat.

Guided by the central theme, ‘Towards Safe, Smart & Sustainable Public Transport,’ the flagship event will gather government authorities, fleet operators, original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), technology developers and investors to accelerate the adoption of integrated, efficient and environmentally responsible public transit systems.

The 5th edition of the event is organised by the Bus and Car Operators Confederation of India (BOCI) and is hosted by the Akhil Gujarat Pravasi Vahan Sanchalak Mahamandal and co-hosted by both the Gujarat Luxury Cab Owners Association and the Gujarat Tourist Vehicles Operators Association. MM Activ Sci-Tech Communications serves as the event curator.

As India's transit sector undergoes a structural transformation driven by electrification, regulatory safety updates, and digital network integration, Prawaas 5.0 aims to serve as a catalyst for fostering dialogue between state transport undertakings, central policymakers and private fleet operators.

The event will also showcase intelligent transport systems (ITS), digital ticketing frameworks, AI-driven fleet telematics and clean-energy mobility solutions.

It provides an on-ground platform for new vehicle product launches, strategic business matchmaking and infrastructure investment.

Building upon its previous editions, the three-day convention is projected to secure comprehensive representation from all 36 Indian States and Union Territories. The last edition attracted over 15,000 industry professionals, more than 10,000 bus & car operators and featured over 300 leading mobility companies.  The event was attended by more than 1,500 delegates, supported by over 60 expert speakers across technical panels and industry conferences.

The large-scale exhibition will serve as an interactive arena for stakeholders across the commercial mobility value chain to address current operating challenges, such as unit economics and infrastructure constraints, while establishing partnerships to modernise India's passenger transport network.

Tata Motors Expands SCV & Pickup Range With All-New Intra V40

Tata Intra V40

Tata Motors, one of India’s largest commercial vehicle manufacturers, has launched the all-new Intra V40 small commercial vehicle (SCV).

Engineered for high-load last-mile applications, the Intra V40 integrates a CNG and petrol bi-fuel powertrain designed to reduce operating costs and provide fuel flexibility across diverse transport routes.

The Intra V40 is built upon a hydroformed chassis to maximise structural strength, stability and vehicle refinement under heavy loading conditions. It features a best-in-class payload capacity of 1,525 kg alongside a 2,960 mm (9.7 ft) long load body to maximise volumetric cargo capacity.

It is powered by a 1.2-litre engine that generates 58 bhp of maximum power and 106 Nm of maximum torque. The SCV comes with a 110-litre CNG tank for extended operational range, paired with a bi-fuel architecture to ensure continuous operation across varying fuel availability zones.

The Intra V40 features a modern walk-through cabin, car-like driving dynamics and front disc brakes to enhance driver comfort and vehicle control during extended operating shifts.

The addition of the Intra V40 establishes a comprehensive bi-fuel and electric product matrix for Tata Motors in the SCV and pickup categories. The company’s alternate fuel options now span multiple payload points across both bi-fuel/CNG range – Ace Pro Bi-fuel, Ace CNG 2.0, Intra V20 Gold and all-new Intra V40. And the electric vehicle range consists of Ace Pro EV, Ace EV 1000 and Intra EV Pickup.

To support fleet operators, the Intra V40 comes integrated with Tata Motors’ standard digital and service ecosystem. This includes Sampoorna Seva 2.0 for end-to-end vehicle lifecycle support and the Fleet Edge telematics platform, which provides real-time operational insights, predictive maintenance tracking, and fleet uptime optimisation.

Pinaki Haldar, Vice-President & Business Head – SCVPU, Tata Motors, said, “The shift towards alternate fuels in last-mile cargo transport is accelerating, driven by the need for lower operating costs and greater flexibility. Tata Motors is at the forefront of this transition, with a clear focus on building the strongest and most comprehensive alternate fuel portfolio in the small CV and pickup segment. With the all-new Intra V40, we further strengthen our bi-fuel range and consolidate our leadership in alternate fuel mobility, while our expanding electric portfolio supports a calibrated transition towards greener last-mile transportation.”

Piaggio Vehicles Partners SBI To Support UP's CM Yuva Yojna

Piaggio Vehicles

Piaggio Vehicles (PVPL), a wholly owned subsidiary of Italy's Piaggio Group, has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the State Bank of India (SBI) Lucknow circle. The strategic partnership is designed to leverage the Uttar Pradesh Government’s CM Yuva Yojna, a flagship initiative targeting employment and self-reliance for 150,000 youth across the state through small business ownership.

The agreement was signed by Amit Sagar, Executive Vice-President for CV Domestic Business and Retail Finance at PVPL and Vibhash Kumar, Deputy General Manager at SBI.

Under the collaboration, SBI’s network of over 1,600 branches across central and eastern Uttar Pradesh will provide retail financing solutions for Piaggio’s entire three-wheeler portfolio, encompassing both Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) and Electric Vehicle (EV) platforms.

The credit structure, operating under the combined guidelines of the state-level CM Yuva Yojna and federal Mudra schemes, targets eligible youth entrepreneurs aged 25–40 years. The partnership introduces financial terms to lower the total cost of ownership:

  • Interest Structure: zero percent interest loans enabled by a 100 percent government interest subsidy.
  • Loan-to-Value Ratio: Funding coverage spanning 85 percent to 90 percent of the total vehicle cost.
  • Repayment Profile: A fixed four-year repayment tenure with no external guarantor requirements.
  • Capital Incentives: Full refund of the initial margin money upon successful completion of the loan repayment cycle.

To streamline the onboarding process, Piaggio India will set up dedicated CM Yuva Help Centres across its authorised dealership network in Uttar Pradesh. These walk-in centres are designed to offer application guidance, documentation verification, and direct financing coordination within the showrooms.

Amit Sagar, said, “India’s mobility landscape is evolving rapidly. From small entrepreneurs to fleet operators, a new class of owners is emerging, and they need financing that understands their realities. Through this partnership, Piaggio India and State Bank of India are bringing together the strength, trust, and reach of two respected institutions to make vehicle ownership simpler, faster, and more accessible. By leveraging the Uttar Pradesh Government’s CM Yuva Yojna which offers eligible young entrepreneurs 0% interest free financing, government-backed subsidies, and simplified access to business ownership; we are creating meaningful opportunities for self-employment and enterprise development at scale. This initiative goes beyond vehicle financing; it is about enabling aspirations, fostering entrepreneurship, and contributing directly to employment generation for the youth of Uttar Pradesh. Piaggio India remains committed to supporting inclusive economic progress through practical, sustainable, and accessible mobility solutions.”

Vibhash Kumar, added, “This collaboration combines SBI’s trusted financial capabilities and extensive network with Piaggio’s established leadership in the three-wheeler segment to create meaningful livelihood opportunities for aspiring entrepreneurs across Uttar Pradesh. Through CM Yuva Yojna, we are committed to supporting youth-led enterprise by making affordable financing widely accessible, thereby strengthening self-employment, last-mile connectivity and long-term economic development.”