Will CV Growth Moderate In FY2024-25?

Will CV Growth Moderate In FY2024-25?

Volvo Eicher Commercial Vehicles Ltd (VECV) unveiled an electric light truck at the inaugural edition of Bharat Global Mobility Expo in January 2024. It was the only commercial vehicle manufacturer to unveil a new product. What it was not, was the only commercial vehicle manufacturer to display an alternative fuel technology vehicle. 

If the passenger vehicles are witnessing the influx of new technologies in the alternative fuel technology domain and in ADAS, commercial vehicles (CVs) are quickly catching up. They too are attracting a lot of investment in technology to ensure a lower TCO and higher uptime. A look at the CVs that were launched in the post pandemic period and it would be clear that a lot of new technology on emissions, performance, efficiency, comfort and safety side has gone into CVs. 

CVs also performed very well in terms of sales in the post pandemic period, albeit with a lower base level. They may not have attained the peak of 201-12, their performance was not lacking in lustre either. Segments such as buses showed a smart recovery from a very low base during the pandemic period. In FY2022-23, commercial vehicles recorded a growth of 34 percent with sales of 9,62,000 units as compared to the sale of 7,16,000 units in FY2021-22.

In the 2023 calendar year, 9,78,385 commercial vehicles were sold, marking a single digit growth figure. In the third quarter of FY2023-24, commercial vehicles recorded a growth of 3.5 percent with the sale of 2,35,167 units. While the SIAM President Vinod Aggarwal may have termed the performance in terms of sale of the auto industry as satisfactory, some analysts and observers have began expressing that a slowdown is on the way. 

Leading ‘ratings’ organistion Crisil has mentioned in its recent report that revenue growth of CV makers will moderate to between five and seven percent in the next fiscal despite the operating margins being steady and the realisation being better. 

With stable commodity prices, the moderation of between five to seven percent – against an estimated growth of nine percent in FY2023-24 – is likely be because of a hike in vehicle prices. What is ironic is that the growth moderation is expected to take place despite higher average realisations on the back of better growth in M&HCVs and stable raw material (especially steel, iron and aluminium) price.

With operating margins expected to be a good 10-11 percent in the next fiscal, Crisil’s study of four commercial vehicle manufacturers accounting for over 70 percent of the market share is indicative of a certain moderation in the commercial vehicle space. 

M&HCV demand is contingent upon activity in key end-user infrastructure related sectors — roads, real estate, mining and construction, besides transportation and replacement demand. LCV demand, on the other hand, is dependent on last-mile connectivity and e-commerce players.

The Crisil report takes into consideration the four CV makers that account for over 70 percent of the market share. It states that a vital factor that will lead to growth moderation will be an increase of vehicle prices. 

Says Anuj Sethi, Senior Director, CRISIL Ratings, “Revenue growth of CV makers will be driven by higher realisations next fiscal. We expect domestic revenue growth for M&HCVs to lower to 2-3 percent (~ 5 percent this fiscal), and this too will largely be driven by demand for buses. The likelihood of brief slowdown in infrastructure spending owing to general elections and continuing high interest rates shall impact overall M&HCV growth. Demand for LCVs is seen subdued this fiscal due to high-base effect and moderation in spends by e-commerce players. A similar trend is expected next fiscal as well.”

Domestic sales, accounting for over 90 percent of total volume, are expected to inch closer to the previous peak of ~10 lakh units seen in fiscal 2019. Export volume, however, will continue to be sluggish due to continuing inflationary headwinds and economic slowdown in key markets such as Sri Lanka, Africa, and Latin America.

This fiscal operating margin is seen reaching pre-pandemic peaks of ~10 percent, supported by price hikes to offset higher cost of compliance on emission norms, better realisations due to increased sales of M&HCVs and stable raw material prices. This trend is expected to be sustained next fiscal too. That said, in the event of continued sluggishness in sale volumes, discounts offered by CV makers may increase, and partially impact operating margins.

Tata Motors CV

Tata Motors, one of the leading commercial vehicle manufacturers globally, has presented a portfolio of 11 products at an exhibition in South Africa.

The display includes a range of vehicle platforms and powertrain technologies, including electric vehicles and traditional internal combustion models, designed for international market applications.

Tata Motors displayed four zero-emission models developed for specific cargo and industrial duties, which include Tata Ace Pro EV, Tata Intra EV, Tata Ultra E.9 and Prima E28.K.

The display also featured next-generation intermediate trucks and mass mobility passenger buses – Intra V30 & V70, Azura 1918, Ultra Prime RE and long-distance buses, the LPO 1618 Magna (44-seater), LPO 1623 Nova (49-seater premium coach), and the LP 909 school and staff transport bus.

Tata Motors maintains a presence across 29 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, with cumulative regional sales exceeding 340,000 commercial vehicles. The company provides a lineup of over 60 models supported by a network of more than 320 service touchpoints. To support its regional supply chain, the company utilises seven local assembly operations located in South Africa, Kenya, Nigeria, Senegal, Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia.

Asif Shamim, Head of International Business, Tata Motors, said, “This showcase reflects our continued focus on developing relevant, application‑led mobility solutions for our international markets. The portfolio presented here demonstrates the range of platforms and technologies we are building across segments, including electric vehicles, tailored to different use cases and operating conditions. It also reflects the strength of the engineering and development capabilities behind these products, enabling us to deliver solutions that are practical, reliable and built to support customer productivity.”

Bosch, Brakes India and Wheels India Form JV For Commercial Vehicle Air Systems

Bosch - Wheels India - Brakes India - TSF Group

German technology company Bosch has announced a new joint venture with Brakes India (BIPL) and Wheels India (WIL), both companies of the TSF Group, to advance the development and manufacturing of air systems for commercial vehicles.

The partnership is structured as a 50:50 joint venture between Bosch and the TSF Group companies and is expected to begin operations by end-2026, pending regulatory approvals.

The joint venture will concentrate on the engineering, manufacturing and sales of electronically controlled and software-driven modules. The product portfolio will include systems for – air compression, air processing, air suspension and air parking brakes.

The entity will be headquartered in Chennai, with supply chain management integrated across Bosch, Brakes India and Wheels India.

Guruprasad Mudlapur, President, Bosch Group in India and MD, Bosch, said, “This joint venture is a decisive step to shape the future of advanced air systems. By integrating premier engineering and manufacturing prowess, we are co-creating state-of-the-art, intelligent modules that will empower our customers globally to build more advanced commercial vehicles.”

Sandeep Nelamangala, Joint MD, Bosch and President of Bosch Mobility India, said, “The commercial vehicle industry is at a pivotal moment, shifting from mechanical hardware to software-driven architecture. With air systems being an important portfolio extension, the planned joint venture enhances Bosch’s overall commercial vehicle motion management portfolio, strengthening its role in software-driven mobility.”

Sriram Viji, MD, Brakes India, said, “This milestone marks a step towards building a more integrated, system-level approach for OEMs in the commercial vehicle space. We bring our strengths as one of the leading suppliers of pneumatic braking systems. Through this joint venture, we will be able to offer air braking system parts for e-enabled future mobility to customers. We look forward to supporting the industry’s shift towards more advanced, electronically controlled and software-driven systems.”

Srivats Ram, Chairman & Managing Director of Wheels India, added, “Wheels India has been a pioneer in air suspension systems for buses in India for over three decades. Over this period, we have built strong relationships with both OEMs and end users through consistent product quality and service. We are pleased to collaborate with Bosch on this development initiative to advance electronic air suspension systems for the global customers.”

Bus Body

The Automotive Research Association of India (ARAI), a leading automotive R&D organisation set up by the automotive industry with the Government of India, has launched a series of administrative and technical initiatives to support bus body builders navigating the national certification framework.

The updates are structured to lower compliance expenses, minimise paperwork and reduce the processing timeline for vehicle type approval.

Under the updated framework, ARAI has established a Support Cell to assist manufacturers with documentation and pre-application design verification. The association has also introduced a website containing regulatory guidelines and simplified data templates, such as standardised variant lists and checklists, to address Worst-Case Selection Criteria.

Applicants must follow a three-level compliance architecture that incorporates physical safety verifications and mandatory video inspections.

The system enforces the Bus Body Code, implemented under the Motor Vehicles Act, 1988, and the Central Motor Vehicles Rules (CMVR), to standardise vehicle construction and safety metrics across the manufacturing sector. The rules require compliance with distinct Automotive Industry Standards (AIS):

  • AIS 052 (Rev.1): Governs structural requirements and design safety for all buses with a seating capacity of 13 passengers plus the driver (13+D) and above, as mandated by GSR 159 (E).
  • AIS 153: Sets safety criteria, fire protection rules, emergency exit locations, and passenger comfort standards for buses exceeding a 22-passenger capacity, excluding the driver (22+D).
  • Specialised Standards: Includes AIS-119 (Rev.1) for sleeper coaches and AIS-063 for school buses.

The operational updates follow a regulatory directive issued by the Ministry of Road Transport & Highways (MoRTH). Regional Transport Offices (RTOs) are restricted from registering new inter-city and sleeper buses until completed safety checklists are uploaded directly to the government’s VAHAN portal by manufacturers, body builders and inspecting officers.

Dr Reji Mathai, Director, ARAI, said, “ARAI has always been committed to empowering ecosystem stakeholders be it legacy corporations, start-ups or MSMEs. We want to assist the bus body builders in their certification process at all stages including development and testing before they apply for certification. This will ensure that safety remains our utmost priority and consequently a reliable transport system for the public is built in our country. To encourage widespread adoption of these services, we have also introduced substantially optimised pricing structures. We aim to make it easier, faster and cost-effective for all stakeholders to uphold the best standards of passenger safety. The type approval cost had been drastically reduced to INR 1.4 million + GST, which is about 50 percent reduction from a normal case. Additionally, time for type approval process can be fast forwarded to anywhere between 60 days – 90 days, depending upon the readiness of the applicant.”

The revision limits the baseline type approval fee to INR 1.4 million plus GST for applications containing up to 100 vehicle variants, while the processing window has been adjusted to run between 60 and 90 days depending on initial applicant documentation.

MAN Truck & Bus Completes Electric Portfolio With Launch Of eTGM

MAN eTGM

German automotive major MAN Truck & Bus recently unveiled the MAN eTGM at the Transpotec Logitec trade fair in Milan, expanding its battery-electric vehicle line-up into the mid-range distribution segment.

The introduction of the 16-tonne truck establishes a uniform electric commercial vehicle portfolio ranging from 12 to 50 tonnes, bridging the gap between the lightweight eTGL and the heavy-duty eTGX and eTGS series.

The e-truck features a permissible gross weight of 16.01 tonnes (with a 16.5-tonne option) and a chassis payload capacity of approximately 10.6 tonnes. It is designed for urban and regional distribution, municipal use and construction transport, the e-truck also supports trailer operations up to a gross combination weight of 33 tonnes. Operating in the over 16-tonne category provides transport companies with road toll reductions in several European markets while assisting fleets in meeting EU CO2 emissions targets.

The eTGM utilises a modular battery-electric system derived from MAN’s heavy-duty truck platforms. It is powered by the MAN eCD210 electric drive, which produces 210 kW (285 hp) and a maximum torque of 800 Nm, paired with a MAN TipMatic 2 transmission. Operators can configure the vehicle with two to four battery packs, providing a total usable capacity of up to 320 kWh and a maximum operating range of 480 kilometres.

Friedrich Baumann, Member of the Executive Board for Sales & Customer Solutions at MAN Truck & Bus, said, "With the MAN eTGM, we are putting the ideal electric solution for inner-city and regional distribution transport on the road right now. It is the logical conclusion to our eTruck portfolio and makes MAN a true full-range supplier of battery-electric commercial vehicles."

For body assembly, the chassis includes optimised wheelbases, standardised interfaces and a mechanical power take-off shaft (mPTO) to allow the integration of conventional body designs without extensive modification. Alongside the eTGM premiere, MAN showcased its broader decarbonisation ecosystem at the trade fair, including the heavy-duty eTGX equipped with Megawatt Charging System (MCS) technology, charging consultancy services and digital fleet connectivity tools.