Will CV Growth Moderate In FY2024-25?

Will CV Growth Moderate In FY2024-25?

Volvo Eicher Commercial Vehicles Ltd (VECV) unveiled an electric light truck at the inaugural edition of Bharat Global Mobility Expo in January 2024. It was the only commercial vehicle manufacturer to unveil a new product. What it was not, was the only commercial vehicle manufacturer to display an alternative fuel technology vehicle. 

If the passenger vehicles are witnessing the influx of new technologies in the alternative fuel technology domain and in ADAS, commercial vehicles (CVs) are quickly catching up. They too are attracting a lot of investment in technology to ensure a lower TCO and higher uptime. A look at the CVs that were launched in the post pandemic period and it would be clear that a lot of new technology on emissions, performance, efficiency, comfort and safety side has gone into CVs. 

CVs also performed very well in terms of sales in the post pandemic period, albeit with a lower base level. They may not have attained the peak of 201-12, their performance was not lacking in lustre either. Segments such as buses showed a smart recovery from a very low base during the pandemic period. In FY2022-23, commercial vehicles recorded a growth of 34 percent with sales of 9,62,000 units as compared to the sale of 7,16,000 units in FY2021-22.

In the 2023 calendar year, 9,78,385 commercial vehicles were sold, marking a single digit growth figure. In the third quarter of FY2023-24, commercial vehicles recorded a growth of 3.5 percent with the sale of 2,35,167 units. While the SIAM President Vinod Aggarwal may have termed the performance in terms of sale of the auto industry as satisfactory, some analysts and observers have began expressing that a slowdown is on the way. 

Leading ‘ratings’ organistion Crisil has mentioned in its recent report that revenue growth of CV makers will moderate to between five and seven percent in the next fiscal despite the operating margins being steady and the realisation being better. 

With stable commodity prices, the moderation of between five to seven percent – against an estimated growth of nine percent in FY2023-24 – is likely be because of a hike in vehicle prices. What is ironic is that the growth moderation is expected to take place despite higher average realisations on the back of better growth in M&HCVs and stable raw material (especially steel, iron and aluminium) price.

With operating margins expected to be a good 10-11 percent in the next fiscal, Crisil’s study of four commercial vehicle manufacturers accounting for over 70 percent of the market share is indicative of a certain moderation in the commercial vehicle space. 

M&HCV demand is contingent upon activity in key end-user infrastructure related sectors — roads, real estate, mining and construction, besides transportation and replacement demand. LCV demand, on the other hand, is dependent on last-mile connectivity and e-commerce players.

The Crisil report takes into consideration the four CV makers that account for over 70 percent of the market share. It states that a vital factor that will lead to growth moderation will be an increase of vehicle prices. 

Says Anuj Sethi, Senior Director, CRISIL Ratings, “Revenue growth of CV makers will be driven by higher realisations next fiscal. We expect domestic revenue growth for M&HCVs to lower to 2-3 percent (~ 5 percent this fiscal), and this too will largely be driven by demand for buses. The likelihood of brief slowdown in infrastructure spending owing to general elections and continuing high interest rates shall impact overall M&HCV growth. Demand for LCVs is seen subdued this fiscal due to high-base effect and moderation in spends by e-commerce players. A similar trend is expected next fiscal as well.”

Domestic sales, accounting for over 90 percent of total volume, are expected to inch closer to the previous peak of ~10 lakh units seen in fiscal 2019. Export volume, however, will continue to be sluggish due to continuing inflationary headwinds and economic slowdown in key markets such as Sri Lanka, Africa, and Latin America.

This fiscal operating margin is seen reaching pre-pandemic peaks of ~10 percent, supported by price hikes to offset higher cost of compliance on emission norms, better realisations due to increased sales of M&HCVs and stable raw material prices. This trend is expected to be sustained next fiscal too. That said, in the event of continued sluggishness in sale volumes, discounts offered by CV makers may increase, and partially impact operating margins.

TVS Motor Company Launches TVS KING Ka Vaada 3.0 Customer Support Initiative

TVS King

TVS Motor Company has announced the launch of ‘TVS KING Ka Vaada 3.0’, an expanded value-added scheme for its three-wheeler portfolio. The initiative extends beyond vehicle maintenance to include financial security and protection benefits for customers and their families.

The updated programme introduces personal and family protection measures alongside traditional vehicle support.

Personal accident coverage for up to INR 1 million in the event of death or permanent disability. Education support of INR 100,000 per child for up to two children in the event of death or permanent disability. Hospitalisation income of INR 4,000 per day for up to 30 days during medical confinement. Three free services and roadside assistance across the range.

The scheme applies to both Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) and Electric Vehicle (EV) models in the passenger and cargo segments.

Model Category

Warranty Period

Roadside Assistance

Passenger ICE (Deluxe, Duramax Plus)

2 Years

1 Year

TVS King EV Max

6 Years

3 Years

Cargo Models (Kargo HD, Kargo HD EV)

Up to 6 Years

3 Years

Industry Representative Warns Of Middle East Tensions Impacting Road Transport

Logistics

In what is seen as a global energy crisis on the back of the ongoing war between Iran and USA-Israel, is now also expected to have an impact on the Indian transport sector.

Bal Malkit Singh, Advisor & Former President – All India Motor Transport Congress (AIMTC), has called for proactive government measures to protect the economy and the road transport sector from the effects of escalating tensions in the Middle East. The warning follows a surge in crude oil prices to nearly USD 95 per barrel and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz as of late February 2026.

The road transport sector is experiencing a slowdown due to reduced industrial output. Industry observations indicate a decline of up to 50 percent in certain segments, with projections suggesting this could reach 70–80 percent if current disruptions persist.

Furthermore, it can also lead to rising prices for fuel, lubricants, tyres and AdBlue (urea). He has expressed concerns over driver migration due to fewer work opportunities and the closure or price increases at highway eateries.

The ‘energy war’ scenario is impacting the wider MSME ecosystem, leading to higher production costs and operational challenges for small businesses and trading establishments.

Singh has urged the government to implement policy support to maintain economic stability, emphasising that the transport sector serves as the lifeline for domestic trade.

Proposed interventions include:

  • Deferment of Equated Monthly Instalments (EMIs).
  • Introduction of soft loan schemes.
  • Targeted tax relaxations for transporters and MSMEs.

Bal Malkit Singh, said, “The current geo-political developments are an early warning signal for our economy. The road transport sector, being the lifeline of trade and commerce, is already experiencing stress due to reduced movement and rising operational costs. If timely interventions are not considered, the situation could escalate significantly in the coming weeks. It is essential to support MSMEs and transporters through relief measures such as deferment of EMIs, soft loan schemes, and tax relaxations to ensure business continuity and economic stability.”

Image credit: Samuel Wolfl/Pexels

Allianz Joins Euro NCAP Safer Trucks Programme As Associate Member

Euro NCAP - Allianz

Euro NCAP has announced that Allianz has joined the Safer Trucks programme as an Associate Member, which combines vehicle safety assessment with commercial risk data.

The Safer Trucks programme, launched in 2024, provides safety ratings for heavy goods vehicles (HGVs). In its first two years, the initiative has assessed 30 truck models and identified safety gaps in the freight sector. Data indicates that in collisions involving HGVs, 90 percent of fatalities are occupants of other vehicles or pedestrians and cyclists. Freight transport accounts for the movement of 95 percent of goods across the EU.

Allianz operates in 70 countries and will contribute expertise on risk trends and claims data. The Allianz Center for Technology will serve as the centre for automotive technology and traffic safety to promote vehicle safety.

The involvement of insurers in safety assessments aims to inform manufacturers and fleet operators about areas for improvement. According to the programme, avoiding accidents reduces repair costs and downtime, which can lead to lower insurance premiums for fleets.

Matthew Avery, Director of Strategic Development, Euro NCAP, said, “We are delighted to welcome Allianz to the Safer Trucks programme. Their expertise in risk and casualty analysis adds a valuable new dimension to our multi-disciplinary approach. Safer Trucks is designed not only to benchmark safety performance but also to catalyse improvements in truck design and technology. By integrating risk insight from Allianz with our independent testing data, we aim to accelerate safety innovation across the commercial vehicle sector.”

Matthias Trustedt, Head of Global P&C, Allianz SE, said, “Joining Euro NCAP’s Safer Trucks initiative aligns with our commitment to reducing road risk through evidence-based insights. We believe that independent safety ratings, tied to real-world risk data, can influence both purchasing decisions and the development of safer vehicle technologies. Allianz is proud to support this important work, to help fleet operators make informed choices that protect drivers and other road users, and to offer them tailored and risk-based insurance solutions.”

Christian Sahr, MD, Allianz Center for Technology, said, “Our accident research shows that modern safety systems in trucks can significantly reduce the number of serious accidents. In addition to protecting life, avoiding accidents brings economic benefits for fleet operators because a fleet with lower repair and downtime costs is more efficient, offers better working conditions for drivers, and has significantly lower insurance premiums. Through our cooperation with Euro NCAP, we see excellent opportunities to use our combined expertise to improve the market penetration of safety systems that are already available and that contribute to accident prevention.”

Piaggio Vehicles Secures Order For 100 Ape Xtra Bada 700 From HeidelbergCement India

Ape Xtra Bada 700

Piaggio Vehicles (PVPL), a subsidiary of the Piaggio Group, has secured an order for more than 100 units of its Ape Xtra Bada 700 cargo three-wheeler from HeidelbergCement India.

The three-wheelers will be deployed across 53 districts in Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Bihar. This order marks the entry of the new diesel cargo model into industrial applications.

The Ape Xtra Bada 700 features a 700 DI diesel engine, a 7-foot cargo deck and a payload capacity of 750 kg, which is the highest in the three-wheeler cargo segment. The vehicle is equipped with 12-inch radial tyres, a digital instrument cluster with a 3.5-inch LCD and an optional rear sensor for reversing.

The vehicle architecture includes a chassis and suspension geometry designed for stability and load distribution. The cabin is engineered for long-distance operation and the engine is tuned for torque and pickup. Piaggio offers a five-year warranty on the model. The company positions this three-wheeler as a replacement for entry-level four-wheeler small commercial vehicles (SCVs) due to its operating economics.

Amit Sagar, Executive Vice President, CV Domestic Business & Retail Finance, Piaggio Vehicles, said, “This flagship order from Heidelberg Cement India Limited is a strong validation of the Ape Xtra Bada 700’s disruptive capabilities. At Piaggio India, we have always believed in pushing the boundaries of innovation in the last-mile mobility segment. The Ape Xtra Bada 700 sets new industry benchmarks in engine capacity, deck size and payload, and is designed to empower customers with more productivity and superior earnings. Breaking into applications traditionally dominated by 4-wheeler SCV marks an important milestone in our journey of offering better TCO and profitability to our customers.”