Tesla may not be the only game-changer in the electric vehicle space anymore. We see many other manufacturers taking huge leaps in the sector, even in India – what with Tata Motors and its Nexon EV ruling a majority of the EV space, or Mahindra, who announced that a fully electric version of its popular XUV300 SUV will be launched in the second half of next year. 

Just like the global automotive market, the Indian automotive market is also going through a transition, and India is just at the beginning of this transition. We currently see electric two- and three-wheelers having great acceptance, which we will eventually see happening in the light vehicle market as well. As for four-wheelers, we are at the start of this transition. In that sense, both the passenger vehicle and small and light commercial vehicle segments will experience electrification eventually. However, the rate at which this happens will be slightly slower as compared to two- and three-wheelers because 80 percent of our market is A and B segment. 

In terms of two- and three-wheelers, the upfront cost, which has been a big hurdle for EV acceptance, has been taken care of by several government subsidies and the special GST rate that they get. Moreover, the government also supports in terms of direct consumer incentive provided to the customers/buyers. 

Another factor that is, in fact, proving to be of help is the rising price of fuel, Suraj Ghosh, Director – Powertrain research and analysis, S&P Global Mobility, tells us. “As the prices of fuel rise, customers are looking for cheaper alternatives. But we must remember that unless the upfront cost has been taken care of, the acceptance of EVs might still be difficult,” he says. 

The challenges
From the supply side, the supply chain for batteries is still not very smooth. Therefore, sourcing batteries that are of good quality is a big challenge for the EV ecosystem right now. “We don’t have the raw material needed for manufacturing EV batteries or cells. The cell production capacity is not available locally and so, it has to be sourced from countries like China, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan etc., making us dependent in that sense,” Ghosh informs. 

As for the manufacturers (again, from the supply side), there isn’t much clarity on long-term policies. Right now, the FAME scheme supports EV promotion. However, it has an expiry year of 2024. That raises the question of what happens after that. Will there be a new FAME scheme? Or will the government continue to support the EV ecosystem like it is now? Hence, due to the lack of such clarity, manufacturers are being slightly cautious and are hesitant when it comes to investments in EV manufacturing setups, Ghosh says. 

Currently, the lithium-ion batteries used in EVs have different battery chemistries and certain raw materials involved. “Forming collaborations, joint ventures and technological partnerships with companies that work in the upstream segment of mining operations of those raw materials can play a very key part in India’s future of electrification,” Ghosh asserts. He adds, “In fact, Indian OEMs can form a sort of consortium and collectively bargain for raw materials or other key components that go into EVs. This can turn out to be a good initiative by Indian OEMs.” 

Ghosh further informs that from the demand side, there are not many consumers in India who would happily pay premium for a vehicle just because it’s electric – this isn’t something that will happen overnight. Another challenge that comes to light is parity – in terms of price, convenience and range.

The consumer
Ghosh also believes that the upcoming battery electric vehicles in India are being made keeping a price-conscious customer in mind. He further explains, “When we say EVs, we always talk about range. We cannot have a huge battery pack in our car, because then that would increase the cost. And an increase in cost results in isolating a huge segment of the market that can’t afford that car. Therefore, we have to strike a balance between the range and price of the car, where it becomes affordable and satisfactory in terms of the range. Therefore, this is something that OEMs are keeping in mind for their battery electric vehicles.”

The hybrid strategy

So far, all the OEMs in India have been following a wait-and-watch policy – they do not want to commit to any major investment decisions. If the OEMs have the above-mentioned clarity, we will naturally see more investments being made in EVs. “Right now, some OEMs are gradually introducing EVs but not going all in,” Ghosh cites and adds, “The all-in push from OEMs may not happen at least for the mid-term but perhaps towards the later part of this decade.” 

The strategy for electrifying powertrains is basically an effect of how strict or strong the country’s CO2 regulation is. The CO2 regulation in India is called Corporate Average Fuel Efficiency (CAFE) norm. “The second phase started in April this year, and while this norm does demand the electrification of powertrains, it does not mandate OEMs to have pure EVs in their fleet,” Ghosh shares and continues, “OEMs can comply with these norms by having just hybrid vehicles or having a mix of diesel or CNG in their fleet. In that sense, the regulatory situation is not strict enough to trigger any kind of pure EV adoption – however, hybrids are promoted at the same time. Hybrids are a cheaper method of complying with these CO2 norms and they will be a good strategy for most OEMs. We think that the Toyota and Suzuki joint venture hybrids will be hitting the market very soon – probably later this year or early next year, as we have the second phase of CAFE already in place. However, the hybrid strategy won’t be adopted by every OEM; it will be OEM-specific.” 

“The CO2 compliance can be achieved without EVs and just hybrids,” Ghosh further tells us. In truth, if an OEM can reduce its CO2 footprint, using any technology is up to that respective OEM. The regulation should be technology-neutral, but the push for EVs from the government is so high that some OEMs are forced to take the leap into EVs, skipping the hybrid phase, even if the regulation doesn’t ask for it.  

Hybrid powertrains by Japanese OEMs
Japanese automotive companies, too, like Toyota and Honda, are introducing Indian buyers to hybrid powertrains, and Ghosh is of the opinion that this is a positive move due to the CO2 regulatory framework point of view. He avers, “As the CO2 regulations get more strict from this year, OEMs have to introduce fuel-efficient powertrains into the market. The Japanese OEMs can’t launch EVs directly because their EV products could be too expensive for the Indian market. Hence, the hybrid technology seems like a good fit at the moment. That’s because it’s not very costly, the technology isn’t very complicated, and moreover, it helps in CAFE compliance.” 

Toyota, Ford and India
Japanese companies like Toyota clearly have a set vision on the place hybrid powertrains make for themselves in India. Also, while Toyota is looking to manufacture EV parts in India, Ford, on the other hand, has chosen not to manufacture electric vehicles in India. The reason for Toyota's move is because it has plans to make India a manufacturing hub for electric vehicle parts to meet demand locally as well as for export to Japan and some ASEAN countries. As for Ford, the company said it was working on the business restructuring and continues to explore possible alternatives for its manufacturing facilities. These are two extremely contradicting steps at the same time from two multinational automotive companies for India. 

Sharing his views, Ghosh says, “Ford’s decision was a strategic decision to close down its sales operations in India, given they were not doing well in the country and were not profitable here. They did not capture any of the segments, unlike Toyota, which is very strong in its Innova and Fortuner segment. Toyota has been almost unshaken in its turf for the last 10 to 15 years.” 

He further shares that the two companies – Ford and Toyota – are, in fact, not really at two extreme ends. “Where Toyota has plans to make India a manufacturing hub for electric vehicle parts to meet demand locally as well as for export to Japan and some ASEAN countries, its strategy is about efficient capacity utilisation of the Indian facilities, ” Ghosh says. He continues, “As for Ford, they did not see enough potential in the Indian market and hence, believed that it was better to exit and instead focus on other core markets. Ford now has some plans for EVs that are very North American or European-oriented. Thus, these plans do not suit the Indian environment. So, I don’t think their exit affects the Indian ecosystem in any way. Toyota already exports a lot of ICE technology components from India to ASEAN countries, South America etc. using the Indian facility as an export hub. So now, they are introducing more components to their already existing basket of exports.” 

Making a strong domestic demand
From Japan’s involvement in India’s hybrid powertrains to several Indian EV leaders making strides in the sector, do we see India turning into a manufacturing hub for electric powertrain vehicles in the future? “Looking at China right now, India is too small to be compared with them from the perspective of scale of EV operations,” Ghosh responds. He further states that we have to build a scale comparable to China, and for that, there has to be a very strong domestic demand first. “We cannot supply to the world unless we supply to India,” he says. “Additionally, the Indian OEMs have to make sure that the domestic demand does not go to anybody else. In this case, the manufacturers in India will have the confidence to spread out geographically and sell to the other markets. However, for all of this to become a strong reality, the degree of investment required is not there yet. There must be investments in R&D capabilities, sales and manufacturing setups, charging infrastructure facilities, along with strong support from the government. The government has announced some PLI schemes and policies, which, if implemented, will make things start moving a little faster. There are some OEMs that are very aggressive, like Tata Motors. But despite that, the volume or numbers we have in mind is miniscule as compared to where the Chinese market stands,” Ghosh shares. 

If there’s a demand, there’s a market
Environmental concern is a real thing and electric vehicles are better for the environment. In spite of the future being an electric one, there is a strong demand for diesel vehicles in the luxury car market. This is perhaps because there's still a lot of time before India turns completely electric.

Companies, like Mercedes, for example, still provide diesel and petrol powertrain car models. However, selling diesel cars is not a problem at all if there is a market for it and if those cars comply with market regulations, Ghosh opines. Also, the sale of diesel cars is not limited to the luxury segment; some segments have a natural demand for diesel cars – for example, the taxi segment, small commercial vehicles or small trucks. “Therefore, irrespective of the segment, there are diesel cars in the market and they will exist so till at least 2027 or 2028, when BSVI ends and the next regulation comes in,” Ghosh informs. 

The EV battery supply chain race
Ghosh further highlights that electric cars are always priced at a premium and manufacturers themselves have a constraint on the production. “That’s because the battery supply chain comes into the picture,” he adds. “Around 20 million two-wheelers are sold in India annually. If we decide to replace all these 20 million two-wheelers with electric two-wheelers, then the manufacturers will not be able to produce that much as they do not have control over the battery supply. The battery supply is highly constrained at the moment. So, all the manufacturers are in a race to acquire key elements in the EV battery supply chain.” Giving an example, Ghosh adds, “For instance, automakers like Tesla and VW are looking for partners in the mining sector as they want to have more control on the supply chain of EV batteries.” 

Taking it at a gradual pace
Hence, the race is not about making a vehicle and selling it, but has gone beyond that. While everyone wants to sell an electric vehicle, we must ask, “do we have the batteries to manufacture them?” Moreover, once EVs become mainstream, all the facilities, manufacturing setups, the human resources directly involved with the auto industry and indirectly involved (like the service, insurance, workshop industry etc.) will need to adapt. “Therefore, looking at it holistically, a gradual pace works best, especially for an emerging economy like India,” Ghosh asserts.  

A green future
As we look at a future of powertrain and electrification, India certainly has a potential to be a hub for electric powertrain vehicles. It’s true that as we look at electrification as the future of India’s transport, the challenges haven’t stepped aside. But these are nothing that can’t be solved. With the right clarity on where the electric vehicle market in India is heading, strong localisation and the correct investments, electrification can be a boon for India like never before. Where we see several auto companies making strides in the sector, from Hyundai Motor Co working on developing a small electric car for India to ElectricPe (a new energy infra start-up) forming a strategic alliance with Hero Electric to set up an extensive EV charging infrastructure in the country, Indian transportation looks nothing but green. (MT)