In the SCV category, the CNG-powered Super Carry faces competition from the Mahindra Supro and Jeeto, and the CNG version of the market leader Tata Ace. In the pick-up category above it, it is vehicles like the CNGpowered Mahindra Bolero which are finding good acceptance as an alternative fuel CV. Above the pick-up category, which is termed as the LCV segment, there are offerings like the Eicher Pro 2049 CNG, Tata 407 CNG and Tata 709 CNG which are finding acceptance as alternative fuel CVs in the wake of the rising diesel prices. With small, light and intermediate commercial vehicles turning unattractive due to the significant rise in fuel prices, transporters are looking at alternative fuel vehicles powered by LNG and electricity other than CNG to keep costs under control. An industry source mentioned that gaspowered small commercial vehicles have come to account for 40 percent of the total commercial vehicles sales in FY2020-21 as compared to under 10 percent in FY2018-19. He informed that a typical LCV (from sub-one tonne to 7.5-tonne GVW) consumes roughly 1,150 litres of diesel by running about 8,000 km per month, the cost of which is approximately INR 112,000 with a litre of diesel costing about INR 98 per litre in Mumbai. The CNG, in comparison, provides a fair reduction in cost of about 45 to 50 percent as CNG costs approximately INR 52 per kg in Mumbai, he explained. 
 

CNG As An Alternative
Supporting the shift to CNG by commercial operators is the technological advancement. Factory fitted CNG kits on BS VI vehicles are offering better performance, efficiency and reliability. They are presenting peace of mind to the transporter as they get AMC on the entire vehicle and don’t have to worry about the warranty getting void. Sensing a rising level of restlessness among their customers, commercial vehicle manufacturers revisited their CNG strategy. With escalating fuel price, they chalked out plans to develop CNG variants at certain tonnage points. The government announcement to expand CNG network also helped. The fly in the ointment being the geographical bias concerning CNG prices (CNG is cheaper in Delhi NCR than Mumbai or Pune), commercial vehicle manufacturers seem to have tuned their strategies accordingly. With Delhi NCR region toping in CNG vehicle sales, there are regions in the West and South that are lagging for the want of network and in terms of the respective fuel prices. With CNG-powered commercial vehicles in the 3.5-tonne and 15-tonne categories showing good demand, the comment by Vinod Aggarwal, Managing Director and CEO, VE Commercial Vehicles Limited (VECV), that he expects the share (of CNG vehicles) to hover around 25 to 30 percent assumes importance. VECV has the highly successful Eicher Pro 2049 with 5-tonne GVW. It has other CNG-powered BS VI compliant commercial vehicles too in the 5-tonne to 16-tonne space – on the truck side as well as the bus side.
 

Apart from the CNG-powered Jeeto and Supro, Mahindra & Mahindra too is said to be working on rolling out CNG variants of its LCV and ICV range. Shyam Maller, former Executive Vice President – Marketing, Sales and Aftermarket, VECV, and a commercial vehicle industry veteran in India, averred that the significant escalation in the price of diesel vehicles (between 10 to 12 percent in the 5- to 15-tonne category) during the BS VI transition also made them unattractive. The fuel price rise further added to the sentiment. Putting the price escalation in the range of 8 to 17 percent approximately, depending on the segment the vehicle is in, Girish Wagh, Executive Director, Tata Motors, reasoned that this was caused by an increase in the technology content. Regarding the shift to alternative fuel CVs, he informed that the recent diesel price has increased customer focus on the total cost of ownership (TCO). Central to the operation of a commercial vehicle, the cost of urea dosing in vehicles above certain tonnage point has also altered the TCO. With Selective Catalyst Reduction (SCR), the fluid dynamics of BS VI emission complaint commercial vehicles has changed. Add the fluid costs to a series of vehicle price hikes in the last eight months, and the TCO equation concerning diesel-powered commercial vehicles has begun to look unattractive.

Of the opinion that transporters have been under pressure since the rising diesel prices have impacted overall profitability and compelled a rise in freight rates, Wagh mentioned, “As the most significant variable, diesel price, depending on the segment and application, may account for 40-58 percent of the TCO. In percentage terms, it has increased by an estimated 10 percent.” Maller stated that the diesel price is accounting for over 60 percent of the TCO and leading transporters to look at either highly efficient BS VI emission complaint commercial vehicle or the one that is powered by an alternative fuel. In an interview to a leading newspaper, Shamsher Diwan, Vice President, ICRA, is known to have said that the (CNG vehicle) trend in terms of increasing penetration of electric commercial vehicles will play out in the mid-term in the wake of the rising diesel prices and restrictions on polluting vehicles. 

In its earnings call for the first quarter of FY2021-22, Tata Motors mentioned that an improvement in CNG infrastructure had ensured that CNG vehicles are limited to certain pockets in the country. With transporter profitability under pressure, it should not surprise commercial vehicle manufacturers to accelerate work on variants as well as new product-lines in the CNG and EV space. While Wagh revealed that they are continuously working to improve the fuel efficiency of their products, which has helped in partially offsetting the impact of fuel inflation for the customers, Gopal Mahadevan, Director and CFO, Ashok Leyland, said in a recent interaction with Motoring Trends that they are applying thrust on CNG vehicles in the LCV and ICV segments.

Petrol As An alternative
 Launching the petrol version of its SCV Ace in July 2021, Tata Motors stressed on it being the most affordable petrol commercial vehicle in its class. With a GVW of over 1.5-tonne, the vehicle, powered by a 30 hp (22 kW) 694 cc engine mated to a four-speed manual transmission, is priced at INR 400,000. Aimed at last-mile delivery applications much like the petrol version of the Maruti Suzuki Super Carry, it is claimed to have the lowest EMI of INR 7,500 per month. With petrol retailing at roughly INR 108 per litre in Mumbai, the case of petrol Ace or Super Carry is supported by their driveability, refinement and lower maintenance cost over their diesel counterpart. 

Capable of catering to segments like logistics, distribution of fruits, vegetables and agricultural products, beverages and bottles, FMCG and FMCD goods, e-commerce, parcel and courier, furniture, packed LPG cylinders, dairy, pharmaceuticals and food products, perishable ‘refrigerated’ goods and waste management, vehicles like the Ace petrol, according to Wagh, have emerged as an alternative fuel option in the SCV segment. Of the opinion that an improvement in overall fluid efficiency during BS VI transitions along with several features and value enhancement has helped lower the TCO of petrol commercial vehicles, Wagh remarked, “These factors are also helping to achieve faster turnaround and payback.” In addition to the advantage of good pick-up and driveability, faster turnaround time and lower maintenance costs, he stressed on the Ace petrol’s acquisition cost, which is 16 percent lower than that of its diesel counterpart. Mahadevan acknowledged that they are seeing petrol CVs emerging at low tonnage (one to 1.5-tonne) points.
 

LNG as an alternative 
As a low polluting alternative to CNG, LNG could soon become a fuel of choice in long-haul commercial vehicles. Receiving a push from the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, which has outlined a USD 60 billion investment to create gas infrastructure in the country till 2024, LNG is expected to rise in terms of energy mix from the current 6 percent to 15 percent by 2030, according to Maller. As per a study, the liquefied gaseous fuel could be used by at least 10 percent of the 10 million truckers in India. Likely to cost 30 to 40 percent cheaper than fossil fuels, LNG could open up a big retro-fitment market for commercial vehicles as well. It could give rise to an industry manufacturing cryogenic cylinders among other LNG system components. Suitable to power heavy construction and mining equipment like 100-tonne class dump trucks and large excavators as well, LNG as an alternative fuel offers an advantage of higher energy density as compared to CNG. In the case of trucks or buses, the LNG-powered ones could do 600 to 800 km on a full tank.
 

Drawing attention to an investment earmarked in the region of INR 100 billion over the next three years to create LNG infrastructure for long-haul commercial vehicles, Maller averred, “The setting up of 1,000 LNG stations is planned. Of these, some 150 such fuel stations are expected to come up on the golden quadrilateral at an interval of 200 km.” “The first LNG station among those earmarked has already been set up at Nagpur in July 2021,” he added. Retailing LNG at INR 62 per kg, the pump is claimed to be operated by the Indian Oil Corporation. The Indian oil marketing major has obtained several licences in recent years for the building of such facilities. GAIL (India) is also in talks with ExxonMobil and Mitsui, which could potentially partner as LNG suppliers as well as financiers for the initial lot of LNG trucks that would run in India. Stressing on the fact that a CNG ICV-class of trucks could today do Mumbai to Bangalore or vice versa with ease, courtesy the strategically located CNG pumps, an industry source informed that LNG vehicles could manage longer intervals between refills. They could match the range of diesel, he added.
 

Electricity as an alternative 
As per the Phase II of Fame II scheme, it is the electric three-wheelers that are poised to benefit the most as commercial vehicles. Overlook the fragmented nature of the business, and there is a big market for last-mile transportation in terms of shared mobility that is opening up. Attracting the participation of organised players like Mahindra Electric and Piaggio India, and regional players like Hykon and KAL, electricity as an alternative fuel is coming of age. Powering passenger and cargo three-wheelers, it is also driving a shift at the level of buses. Trucks are expected to follow. Promising lower overall TCO despite the higher initial acquisition cost, electricity as an alternative fuel is growing on the premise of reaching parity with fossil fuel-powered vehicles in the next half a decade as battery prices fall. 

With corporates and e-commerce players looking at reducing their carbon footprint, electric commercial vehicles are already enticing interest in terms of cargo carriage at certain tonnage points. On the passenger carrier side, it is the buses that are rising in numbers across the country, courtesy a governmental push and a favourable PPP operating model. If the rollout of 40 Ashok Leyland e-buses at Chandigarh would highlight this, some 93 Tata Starbus e-buses are operating in Kolkata. Mahadevan averred, “We are watching EVs catch up at the local point of use on the encouragement of the government. It is more on the bus side, but trucks will soon catch up.” Maller remarked, “As of April 2021, over 1,100 electric buses are on the roads out of the nearly 5,595 buses. The FAME II with an outlay of INR 100 billion for a period of three years commencing from 1 April 2019 is set to incentivise demand creation for xEVs in the country. This phase aims to generate demand by way of supporting 7,000 electric buses, 500,000 three-wheelers, 55,000 four-wheeler passenger cars and 1 million two-wheelers.”
 

ssues concerning vehicle cost (including TCO), battery life and range, charging infrastructure, finance availability and impact on payload are some of the challenges that will have to be addressed. A reasonably well-thought through estimate is that EV growth as far as commercial vehicles are involved, will be bottom-up. It will begin with SCVs and move up the tonnage points, said Maller. He added that this will be backed by fiscal incentives and governed by falling battery prices. The feasibility of battery electric vehicles for commercial use, explained Maller, is expected to elevate only after the battery pack cost per kWh goes down. A good threshold would be about USD 100.
 

Considering the amount of distance to be covered, new experiments concerning electric vehicles in Europe are opening up new electrification possibilities. An agreement between truck majors Volvo-Daimler-Traton (the Group that owns Scania and MAN) leading to a collective investment of Euro 500 million to install and operate at least 1,700 high-performance green energy charging points close to highways as well as at logistic and destination points within five years from the establishment of the JV is one of them. The objective of the JV is to deliver CO2-neutral transport solutions to achieve climate neutrality by 2050.

Monthly registrations of new passenger cars in Europe in November 2024 declined by 1.7 percent year on year. According to data from JATO Dynamics, 1,054,043 units were registered across 28 European markets in November, taking the year-to-date volume of new vehicle registrations to 11,847,573 units, an increase of just 0.8 percent compared to the corresponding period last year.

In November, Europe’s ‘big five’ automakers – Volkswagen Group, Stellantis, Renault Group, BMW Group and Mercedes-Benz Group – were responsible for 65 percent of total sales. Japan’s carmakers followed with a 13 percent market share, while Korean brands were responsible for 7.5 percent of total sales.

The United States came next, with Tesla and Ford accounting for 5.9 percent of total monthly registrations, while China’s carmakers held 6.7 percent market share last month. Growth in November came from Renault Group (+8.6 percent), Toyota (+9.8 percent) and Geely (+16 percent). By contrast, double-digit drops in registrations were posted by Stellantis, Hyundai-Kia, Ford, Tesla and Nissan; Germany’s Mercedes-Benz and BMW also posted losses last month.

November 2024 also saw significant changes from a brand perspective. Skoda occupied third position in the monthly rankings, thanks to strong sales of its Fabia, Enyaq and Kodiaq models. Volvo overtook Vauxhall/Opel, while both MG and Cupra surpassed Fiat, which recorded a 39 percent drop in registrations following the discontinuation of the gasoline-powered model of its Fiat 500.

Elsewhere, Porsche outsold Land Rover, BYD registered more units than Honda, Omoda moved ahead of Subaru, and Xpeng registered more vehicles than Jaguar or Lancia.

BEVs gain market share

While overall registrations trended downwards, demand for BEVs in Europe increased by 0.8 percent year on year. The market share of BEVs increased to 17.4 percent in November 2024, compared to 17.0 percent in November 2023. Growth was strongest in the UK (+58 percent), Netherlands (+44 percent), Norway (+30 percent) and Belgium (+17 percent), while demand fell by 25 percent and 22 percent in France and Germany respectively.

Electric models from Volkswagen Group accounted for 26 percent of monthly BEV registrations in Europe last month, with volumes up 16 percent. By contrast, Tesla posted a 28 percent drop in volumes as it continues to navigate delays associated with the updated model of its Model Y. It was the second largest seller of BEVs, followed by BMW Group and Stellantis, which occupied third and fourth place respectively.

Chinese automakers shine

The standout performances of the month came from China’s automakers, which combined registered more than 24,100 units of BEVs in November (including Volvo, Polestar and Lotus), just behind Tesla. China’s automakers increased market share in the BEV category, from 12.5 percent in November 2023 to 13.2 percent last month. Growth was driven by Leapmotor (+296 percent), BYD (+127 percent), Xpeng (+93 percent) and Geely (+33 percent).

The curious case of Dacia Sandero

Going from strength-to-strength, the Dacia Sandero ranked among the top ten in the monthly model rankings in November 2024. The Volkswagen Tiguan, Peugeot 208, Toyota Yaris and Volkswagen T-Roc recorded the highest year-on-year growth. The Dacia Sandero consolidated its position as the region’s most popular passenger car and widened the gap from the Volkswagen Golf, which is second in the year-to-date ranking. Other strong performers in November include the Renault Captur, Toyota C-HR, Skoda Fabia, Peugeut 3008, Skoda Kodiaq, Jeep Avenger, BMW Series 5, and Suzuki Swift, among others

Almost every passenger vehicle OEM in India has announced a price hike of its vehicles between three and five percent starting January 2025. Even some commercial vehicle manufacturers have announced that they will hike the prices of their vehicles starting January 2025 owing to the increase in input costs, rise in operational expenses and inflation. 
While the annual inflation rate in India eased to 5.48 percent in November of 2024 from 6.21 percent in the previous month loosely in line with market expectations of 5.5 percent, according to a report by tradingeconomics.com, the increase in automobile prices by three to five percent is expected to dampen the market sentiment at least for the short term. 
If the spike in auto sales during the festive season provided a reason to cheer, the first half of the current fiscal saw many segments registering a slowdown in sales. The extent of this was also indicated by the automotive dealers’ body, the Federation Of Automotive Dealers Association rising in favour of its dealer members to urge automakers to adjust their production schedule in the wake of the inventory at dealers reaching an alarming level. 
The festive season helped to lower the inventory build up of vehicles to a certain extent. However, with the last quarter of this fiscal expected to be a sluggish period for auto sales as it traditionally is considered to be, the news of hike in GST on old and used vehicles from 12 percent to 18 percent is likely to cause some shake up in the used vehicle market that has seen better times in the recent few months as more and more aspiring motorists turn to used cars because of budget constraints and other factors. 
Despite the higher interest rate of above 13.5 percent in case of used vehicles as compared to the interest rate of between eight to 10 percent for new vehicles, the pull for them has been high in the recent times. This is likely to be affected if and when the GST Council’s fitment committee clears the proposal to change the GST on old and new vehicles with an engine capacity of no bigger than 1,200 cc and length of no more than four metre as mentioned above. Even electric vehicles that attract a GST of five percent when bought new will see the GST on them hiked to 18 percent from 12 percent if the proposal goes through. 
While the logic that the hike in GST on used and old vehicles will increase the sale of new small vehicles is hard to understand when applied against the fact that an entry-level vehicle like the Maruti Alto K10 today looks cost to buy at a price of INR 470,000 on-road Mumbai for the basic trim. Also, the sales of it have been steadily shrinking with a trend visible of a rising demand for SUVs. 
Even an entry-level SUV with Maruti S-Presso costs INR 499,000 on-road in Mumbai for the basic trim. The ones like Hyundai Exter or Renault Kiger costs INR 721,000 and INR 705,000 on-road in Mumbai for basic trim variant. 
With prices of vehicles in India claimed to have gone ‘over the roof’, not counting the hike in January 2025, a proposal to hike the GST on luxury automobiles to 35 percent is said to be under consideration. 
Against such a background it would be worth understanding the taxt structure on automobiles in the country to anticipate what an increase from 28 percent GST to 35 percent GST would entail. Passenger Vehicles (Petrol, CNG, LPG) measuring no longer than four metre in length and having an engine of no more than 1,200 cc are taxed at 28 percent. With a compensation cess of one percent, the total tax rate applied in 29 percent. 
Passenger vehicles (diesel) measuring no more than four metre in length and having an engine of no more than 1,200 cc are taxed at 28 percent. With a compensation cess of three percent, the applied rate is 31 percent. Passenger vehicles with an engine of no more than 1,500 cc are taxed at 28 percent. With compensation cess of 17 percent, the applied rate is 45 percent. 
Passenger vehicles with an engine of more than 1,500 cc are taxed at 28 percent. With compensation cess, the applied rate is 48 percent. SUVs that measure above four metre in length, having an engine of more than 1,500 cc and a ground clearance of more than 170 mm are taxed at 28 percent. With compensation cess of 22 percent, the applied rate is 50 percent. 
Hybrid vehicles measuring up to four metre and having an engine of no more than 1,200 cc are taxed at 28 percent. Hybrid vehicles measuring more than four metre in length and having an engine of more than 1,200 cc (petrol) and 1,500 cc (diesel) are taxed at 28 percent. With compensation cess of 15 percent, the applied rate is 43 percent. 
Public transport vehicles of between 10 and 13 seats are taxed at 28 percent. With compensation cess of 15 percent, the applied rate is 43 percent. In the case of buses above 13 seats and goods transport vehicles, the applier GST rate is 28 percent. 
In the case of two- and three-wheelers the GST is 28 percent. With a compensation cess of three percent on two-wheelers above 350 cc, the applied rate for them is 28 percent. Electric vehicles, on the other hand, attract a GST of five percent. For hydrogen vehicles it is 12 percent. 
Besides GST plus compensation cess, there are other State Government and Union Government taxes such as the road tax, 18 percent GST on insurance (an insurance of three years is applied on some class of vehicles including two-wheelers at the time of purchase), toll tax, tax on fuel etc that effective push the tax percentage for every vehicle bought to a considerably higher level. 
The talk of luxury vehicles – which whether one should assume would be premium two-wheelers above 350 cc; passenger vehicles that measure more than four metre and have an petrol engine of more than 1,200 cc and a diesel engine of more than 1,500 cc, and hybrid vehicles measuring more than four metre in length and having an engine of more than 1,200 cc in petrol and 1,500 cc in diesel – being pushed to the 35 percent GST slab that is under consideration may elevate the tax percentage in the price tag to well above 50 percent. This is without including the other taxes mentioned above. 
An article in the Telegraphindia.com dated 4 December 2024 reports that the proposal of the Group of Ministers (GoM) for 35 percent GST for sin goods that are currently taxed at 28 percent has created uncertainty regarding the taxation of automobiles as well. This is particularly the case because they are taxed on par with sin goods like cigarettes and aerated drinks.
While the GoM is only a recommending body and the GST Council the ‘actual deciding’ organisation, an early clarity on whether automobiles/vehicles will be separated from sin goods as they contribute to people’s mobility and the nation’s supply chain would help it looks like.   
As a slowdown continues based on inflation, rise in input prices and operational expenses, the news of increase in some segments of small old and used vehicles as well as the proposal to elevate GST on sin goods from 28 percent to 35 percent is creating new reason for some sectors to worry about. The effect of such occurrence on the economy and on the market is necessary to consider as automobiles have always been described as luxury goods and taxed on par with sin goods, said an industry observer.
The demand of the auto sector to reduce GST on automobiles has never been entertained, which further emphasises that automobiles – even a commuter scooter or a truck – are considered as luxury goods bordering on sin goods, he added. 
The move to tax a section of the new vehicles such as those with a petrol engine of more than 1,200 cc and a diesel engine with more than 1,500 cc to 35 percent is certain to have a profound effect on the auto industry which is being pushed to become a key manufacturing hub in the world. 
The jump through various regulations has already affected the prices of vehicles across the last decade or two. It has made it hard for some aspiring individuals and families to even afford entry-level passenger vehicles.  
India has 34 cars per 1,000 people whereas key automotive markets that are also the key manufacturing hubs have up to 594 cars per 1,000 people. For India to be a key automotive manufacturing hub like China, the observer said, it must first create a market at home where high quality vehicles are taxed such that a larger section of population can afford them, use them and be truly a part of the economic progress the country is achieving. 
The demand for large cars and congestion in many Indian cities makes a ripe case of small cars, small electric cars being used as city commuting machines over two-wheelers, he added. 
“Excessive taxation on sectors like housing and automobiles should not create a situation where the hen that lay golden eggs was killed to find a treasure trove of gold but what was found was just a lifeless body of her,” he signed off. 
 

Image for representative purpose only. 

The prestigious Bharat Mobility Global Expo 2025 event is scheduled to be held from 17-22 January 2025 across three separate venues spread across Delhi NCR.  In addition to the esteemed Bharat Mandapam in New Delhi, the global expo will be held this year in the India Expo Centre & Mart in Greater Noida and Yashobhoomi in Dwarka.

The exhibition showcases cutting-edge innovations and accomplishments across the automotive and mobility value chain, celebrating India's emerging role as a global powerhouse for mobility. It is inspired by the Prime Minister of India's 7Cs mobility agenda. The global expo, which is already in its second year, will once more bring the whole mobility value chain together under one roof. The goal of the expo is to become the world's largest gathering of mobility players and build on the success of its first edition, which took place in January 2024.

With a total area of nearly 200,000 square metres, the venues will host nine concurrent shows and more than 500,000 guests. Given that it is anticipated to draw over 5,000 international buyers – more than 10 times the number of attendees from the first edition of the expo – special attention is being paid this time to the expo's global relevance. As the industry comes together to define the future, this exhibition is a tribute to India's dedication to sustainable transportation solutions and engineering excellence. More than 1,500 exhibitors from all around the world will be present at the event.

Pankaj Chadha, Chairperson, EEPC (Engineering Export Promotion Council) India, said, "The Bharat Mobility Expo 2025 exemplifies India's dedication to innovation and excellence in the mobility sector. This event will not only highlight the latest advancements but also promote collaboration and growth within the industry. We are honoured to unite such a diverse group of stakeholders to co-create the future of mobility."

Honda Motor Co and Nissan Motor Co, two of Japan’s leading automakers, are reportedly exploring a potential merger to create a singular rival to Toyota Motor Corp.

The two Japanese automakers intend to sign a memorandum of understanding to explore sharing ownership holdings in a new holding company, said a report in Nikkei. The merger would help the manufacturers compete against Chinese automakers and other electric vehicle rivals like Tesla. The decision to merge comes after the two businesses decided earlier this year to collaborate on software and batteries for electric vehicles. Toshihiro Mibe, the CEO of Honda at the time, hinted to the potential for a financial partnership with Nissan.

Following rumours of negotiations between the automakers overnight, Executive Vice President Shinji Aoyama stated on Wednesday that Honda is evaluating a number of alternatives, such as a merger, capital tie-up or the creation of a holding company. Aoyama would not comment on when a possible decision will be made. According to the source, Mitsubishi Motors Corp, which already has financial connections to Nissan, may be added to the deal. If all goes according to plan, the corporations may declare on 23 December. According to sources, however, the talks are still in their early stages and could not result in an agreement.