With the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting led by Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das leaving the benchmark repo rate unchanged at 6.5 percent and the policy stance ‘Neutral’, the fight against high and stubborn inflation is far from over. 
With the possibility of any reduction in interest rates for car buyers a distant dream yet, the 5.4 percent GDP during the first half of the current financial year – which amounts to a two-year low – and a Rupee that seems to struggle to keep up with the US Dollar are reflective of the challenges the Indian economy has come to face.  
Against these developments that also saw manufacturing moderate considerably, it is not surprising that automakers have announced a price hike, effective 1 January 2025 for their products. 
Citing rising input costs and operating expenses, it is the passenger vehicle (car and SUV) manufacturers that are at the forefront of the price hike announcements. 
Passenger vehicle market leader, Maruti Suzuki India has announced that it will hike the prices of its vehicles by up to four percent. Mahindra & Mahindra has said that it will hike the prices of its SUVs by three percent. 
JSW MG Motor India has decided to increase of the prices of its entire model line-up by up to 3 per cent whereas Hyundai Motor India will be hiking the price of its offerings by up to INR 25,000. 
Luxury automobile manufacturers Mercedes-Benz, BMW and Audi have announced that they will increase the price of their vehicles by up to three percent each on the back of escalating material costs, fluctuating commodity prices, logistics expenses and inflationary costs. 
Stating that the price increase of passenger vehicles in January 2025 will drive up the already ‘over the roof’ prices, an industry expert mentioned that even the most basic and entry-level car – the Maruti Suzuki Alto – costs no less than INR 470,000 on-road Mumbai. 
Of the opinion that passenger vehicles are already out of the reach of many young earners and those aspiring to move up from a two-wheeler to a decent set of four-wheels, he averred that the growth of the auto industry in India during the last quarter of this financial year and the first half of the next financial year is likely to be muted. 
Any change in the monetary stance by the government and the apex bank, he said further, will take time to percolate into the national economy and its effect would be best felt during the next festive season. 
Another round of hike amid inflationary pressure of automobiles by some manufacturers in April 2025 is another possibility, it seems.  

Image for representative purpose only.
 

Monthly registrations of new passenger cars in Europe in November 2024 declined by 1.7 percent year on year. According to data from JATO Dynamics, 1,054,043 units were registered across 28 European markets in November, taking the year-to-date volume of new vehicle registrations to 11,847,573 units, an increase of just 0.8 percent compared to the corresponding period last year.

In November, Europe’s ‘big five’ automakers – Volkswagen Group, Stellantis, Renault Group, BMW Group and Mercedes-Benz Group – were responsible for 65 percent of total sales. Japan’s carmakers followed with a 13 percent market share, while Korean brands were responsible for 7.5 percent of total sales.

The United States came next, with Tesla and Ford accounting for 5.9 percent of total monthly registrations, while China’s carmakers held 6.7 percent market share last month. Growth in November came from Renault Group (+8.6 percent), Toyota (+9.8 percent) and Geely (+16 percent). By contrast, double-digit drops in registrations were posted by Stellantis, Hyundai-Kia, Ford, Tesla and Nissan; Germany’s Mercedes-Benz and BMW also posted losses last month.

November 2024 also saw significant changes from a brand perspective. Skoda occupied third position in the monthly rankings, thanks to strong sales of its Fabia, Enyaq and Kodiaq models. Volvo overtook Vauxhall/Opel, while both MG and Cupra surpassed Fiat, which recorded a 39 percent drop in registrations following the discontinuation of the gasoline-powered model of its Fiat 500.

Elsewhere, Porsche outsold Land Rover, BYD registered more units than Honda, Omoda moved ahead of Subaru, and Xpeng registered more vehicles than Jaguar or Lancia.

BEVs gain market share

While overall registrations trended downwards, demand for BEVs in Europe increased by 0.8 percent year on year. The market share of BEVs increased to 17.4 percent in November 2024, compared to 17.0 percent in November 2023. Growth was strongest in the UK (+58 percent), Netherlands (+44 percent), Norway (+30 percent) and Belgium (+17 percent), while demand fell by 25 percent and 22 percent in France and Germany respectively.

Electric models from Volkswagen Group accounted for 26 percent of monthly BEV registrations in Europe last month, with volumes up 16 percent. By contrast, Tesla posted a 28 percent drop in volumes as it continues to navigate delays associated with the updated model of its Model Y. It was the second largest seller of BEVs, followed by BMW Group and Stellantis, which occupied third and fourth place respectively.

Chinese automakers shine

The standout performances of the month came from China’s automakers, which combined registered more than 24,100 units of BEVs in November (including Volvo, Polestar and Lotus), just behind Tesla. China’s automakers increased market share in the BEV category, from 12.5 percent in November 2023 to 13.2 percent last month. Growth was driven by Leapmotor (+296 percent), BYD (+127 percent), Xpeng (+93 percent) and Geely (+33 percent).

The curious case of Dacia Sandero

Going from strength-to-strength, the Dacia Sandero ranked among the top ten in the monthly model rankings in November 2024. The Volkswagen Tiguan, Peugeot 208, Toyota Yaris and Volkswagen T-Roc recorded the highest year-on-year growth. The Dacia Sandero consolidated its position as the region’s most popular passenger car and widened the gap from the Volkswagen Golf, which is second in the year-to-date ranking. Other strong performers in November include the Renault Captur, Toyota C-HR, Skoda Fabia, Peugeut 3008, Skoda Kodiaq, Jeep Avenger, BMW Series 5, and Suzuki Swift, among others

Almost every passenger vehicle OEM in India has announced a price hike of its vehicles between three and five percent starting January 2025. Even some commercial vehicle manufacturers have announced that they will hike the prices of their vehicles starting January 2025 owing to the increase in input costs, rise in operational expenses and inflation. 
While the annual inflation rate in India eased to 5.48 percent in November of 2024 from 6.21 percent in the previous month loosely in line with market expectations of 5.5 percent, according to a report by tradingeconomics.com, the increase in automobile prices by three to five percent is expected to dampen the market sentiment at least for the short term. 
If the spike in auto sales during the festive season provided a reason to cheer, the first half of the current fiscal saw many segments registering a slowdown in sales. The extent of this was also indicated by the automotive dealers’ body, the Federation Of Automotive Dealers Association rising in favour of its dealer members to urge automakers to adjust their production schedule in the wake of the inventory at dealers reaching an alarming level. 
The festive season helped to lower the inventory build up of vehicles to a certain extent. However, with the last quarter of this fiscal expected to be a sluggish period for auto sales as it traditionally is considered to be, the news of hike in GST on old and used vehicles from 12 percent to 18 percent is likely to cause some shake up in the used vehicle market that has seen better times in the recent few months as more and more aspiring motorists turn to used cars because of budget constraints and other factors. 
Despite the higher interest rate of above 13.5 percent in case of used vehicles as compared to the interest rate of between eight to 10 percent for new vehicles, the pull for them has been high in the recent times. This is likely to be affected if and when the GST Council’s fitment committee clears the proposal to change the GST on old and new vehicles with an engine capacity of no bigger than 1,200 cc and length of no more than four metre as mentioned above. Even electric vehicles that attract a GST of five percent when bought new will see the GST on them hiked to 18 percent from 12 percent if the proposal goes through. 
While the logic that the hike in GST on used and old vehicles will increase the sale of new small vehicles is hard to understand when applied against the fact that an entry-level vehicle like the Maruti Alto K10 today looks cost to buy at a price of INR 470,000 on-road Mumbai for the basic trim. Also, the sales of it have been steadily shrinking with a trend visible of a rising demand for SUVs. 
Even an entry-level SUV with Maruti S-Presso costs INR 499,000 on-road in Mumbai for the basic trim. The ones like Hyundai Exter or Renault Kiger costs INR 721,000 and INR 705,000 on-road in Mumbai for basic trim variant. 
With prices of vehicles in India claimed to have gone ‘over the roof’, not counting the hike in January 2025, a proposal to hike the GST on luxury automobiles to 35 percent is said to be under consideration. 
Against such a background it would be worth understanding the taxt structure on automobiles in the country to anticipate what an increase from 28 percent GST to 35 percent GST would entail. Passenger Vehicles (Petrol, CNG, LPG) measuring no longer than four metre in length and having an engine of no more than 1,200 cc are taxed at 28 percent. With a compensation cess of one percent, the total tax rate applied in 29 percent. 
Passenger vehicles (diesel) measuring no more than four metre in length and having an engine of no more than 1,200 cc are taxed at 28 percent. With a compensation cess of three percent, the applied rate is 31 percent. Passenger vehicles with an engine of no more than 1,500 cc are taxed at 28 percent. With compensation cess of 17 percent, the applied rate is 45 percent. 
Passenger vehicles with an engine of more than 1,500 cc are taxed at 28 percent. With compensation cess, the applied rate is 48 percent. SUVs that measure above four metre in length, having an engine of more than 1,500 cc and a ground clearance of more than 170 mm are taxed at 28 percent. With compensation cess of 22 percent, the applied rate is 50 percent. 
Hybrid vehicles measuring up to four metre and having an engine of no more than 1,200 cc are taxed at 28 percent. Hybrid vehicles measuring more than four metre in length and having an engine of more than 1,200 cc (petrol) and 1,500 cc (diesel) are taxed at 28 percent. With compensation cess of 15 percent, the applied rate is 43 percent. 
Public transport vehicles of between 10 and 13 seats are taxed at 28 percent. With compensation cess of 15 percent, the applied rate is 43 percent. In the case of buses above 13 seats and goods transport vehicles, the applier GST rate is 28 percent. 
In the case of two- and three-wheelers the GST is 28 percent. With a compensation cess of three percent on two-wheelers above 350 cc, the applied rate for them is 28 percent. Electric vehicles, on the other hand, attract a GST of five percent. For hydrogen vehicles it is 12 percent. 
Besides GST plus compensation cess, there are other State Government and Union Government taxes such as the road tax, 18 percent GST on insurance (an insurance of three years is applied on some class of vehicles including two-wheelers at the time of purchase), toll tax, tax on fuel etc that effective push the tax percentage for every vehicle bought to a considerably higher level. 
The talk of luxury vehicles – which whether one should assume would be premium two-wheelers above 350 cc; passenger vehicles that measure more than four metre and have an petrol engine of more than 1,200 cc and a diesel engine of more than 1,500 cc, and hybrid vehicles measuring more than four metre in length and having an engine of more than 1,200 cc in petrol and 1,500 cc in diesel – being pushed to the 35 percent GST slab that is under consideration may elevate the tax percentage in the price tag to well above 50 percent. This is without including the other taxes mentioned above. 
An article in the Telegraphindia.com dated 4 December 2024 reports that the proposal of the Group of Ministers (GoM) for 35 percent GST for sin goods that are currently taxed at 28 percent has created uncertainty regarding the taxation of automobiles as well. This is particularly the case because they are taxed on par with sin goods like cigarettes and aerated drinks.
While the GoM is only a recommending body and the GST Council the ‘actual deciding’ organisation, an early clarity on whether automobiles/vehicles will be separated from sin goods as they contribute to people’s mobility and the nation’s supply chain would help it looks like.   
As a slowdown continues based on inflation, rise in input prices and operational expenses, the news of increase in some segments of small old and used vehicles as well as the proposal to elevate GST on sin goods from 28 percent to 35 percent is creating new reason for some sectors to worry about. The effect of such occurrence on the economy and on the market is necessary to consider as automobiles have always been described as luxury goods and taxed on par with sin goods, said an industry observer.
The demand of the auto sector to reduce GST on automobiles has never been entertained, which further emphasises that automobiles – even a commuter scooter or a truck – are considered as luxury goods bordering on sin goods, he added. 
The move to tax a section of the new vehicles such as those with a petrol engine of more than 1,200 cc and a diesel engine with more than 1,500 cc to 35 percent is certain to have a profound effect on the auto industry which is being pushed to become a key manufacturing hub in the world. 
The jump through various regulations has already affected the prices of vehicles across the last decade or two. It has made it hard for some aspiring individuals and families to even afford entry-level passenger vehicles.  
India has 34 cars per 1,000 people whereas key automotive markets that are also the key manufacturing hubs have up to 594 cars per 1,000 people. For India to be a key automotive manufacturing hub like China, the observer said, it must first create a market at home where high quality vehicles are taxed such that a larger section of population can afford them, use them and be truly a part of the economic progress the country is achieving. 
The demand for large cars and congestion in many Indian cities makes a ripe case of small cars, small electric cars being used as city commuting machines over two-wheelers, he added. 
“Excessive taxation on sectors like housing and automobiles should not create a situation where the hen that lay golden eggs was killed to find a treasure trove of gold but what was found was just a lifeless body of her,” he signed off. 
 

Image for representative purpose only. 

The prestigious Bharat Mobility Global Expo 2025 event is scheduled to be held from 17-22 January 2025 across three separate venues spread across Delhi NCR.  In addition to the esteemed Bharat Mandapam in New Delhi, the global expo will be held this year in the India Expo Centre & Mart in Greater Noida and Yashobhoomi in Dwarka.

The exhibition showcases cutting-edge innovations and accomplishments across the automotive and mobility value chain, celebrating India's emerging role as a global powerhouse for mobility. It is inspired by the Prime Minister of India's 7Cs mobility agenda. The global expo, which is already in its second year, will once more bring the whole mobility value chain together under one roof. The goal of the expo is to become the world's largest gathering of mobility players and build on the success of its first edition, which took place in January 2024.

With a total area of nearly 200,000 square metres, the venues will host nine concurrent shows and more than 500,000 guests. Given that it is anticipated to draw over 5,000 international buyers – more than 10 times the number of attendees from the first edition of the expo – special attention is being paid this time to the expo's global relevance. As the industry comes together to define the future, this exhibition is a tribute to India's dedication to sustainable transportation solutions and engineering excellence. More than 1,500 exhibitors from all around the world will be present at the event.

Pankaj Chadha, Chairperson, EEPC (Engineering Export Promotion Council) India, said, "The Bharat Mobility Expo 2025 exemplifies India's dedication to innovation and excellence in the mobility sector. This event will not only highlight the latest advancements but also promote collaboration and growth within the industry. We are honoured to unite such a diverse group of stakeholders to co-create the future of mobility."

Honda Motor Co and Nissan Motor Co, two of Japan’s leading automakers, are reportedly exploring a potential merger to create a singular rival to Toyota Motor Corp.

The two Japanese automakers intend to sign a memorandum of understanding to explore sharing ownership holdings in a new holding company, said a report in Nikkei. The merger would help the manufacturers compete against Chinese automakers and other electric vehicle rivals like Tesla. The decision to merge comes after the two businesses decided earlier this year to collaborate on software and batteries for electric vehicles. Toshihiro Mibe, the CEO of Honda at the time, hinted to the potential for a financial partnership with Nissan.

Following rumours of negotiations between the automakers overnight, Executive Vice President Shinji Aoyama stated on Wednesday that Honda is evaluating a number of alternatives, such as a merger, capital tie-up or the creation of a holding company. Aoyama would not comment on when a possible decision will be made. According to the source, Mitsubishi Motors Corp, which already has financial connections to Nissan, may be added to the deal. If all goes according to plan, the corporations may declare on 23 December. According to sources, however, the talks are still in their early stages and could not result in an agreement.